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Forecasting the adoption of digital health technologies: The intention-expectation gap

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  • Ruyobeza, Barimwotubiri (Billy)
  • Grobbelaar, Sara S. (Saartjie)
  • Botha, Adele

Abstract

Healthcare funders and program planners are increasingly recognising that the value and impact of assistive digital health technologies (ADHT) on the traditional healthcare systems are not exclusively realised in their procurement or inhouse design and development phases. Instead, these benefits are more evident in their implementation, adoption, scaling and consistent use. However, predicting the potential for the adoption and use of future health technology such as ADHT remains a significantly challenging task. Invariably, there is limited information available for estimating their initial uptake and continued use before their procurement or design. This research relies on the results of a cross-sectional field survey of 679 participants to explore the intention-expectation gap in target adopters, as an early indicator of an ADHT's potential for adoption and use. The results confirm that behavioural expectation is a better predictor of ADHT's uptake and use than behavioural intention. Furthermore, the larger the intention-expectation gap, the less likely the initial ADHT's uptake. Consequently, promotional and educational campaigns become more valuable and necessary to close the above gap and avoid the probable subsequent intention-behaviour gap and its resultant non-adoption and use.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruyobeza, Barimwotubiri (Billy) & Grobbelaar, Sara S. (Saartjie) & Botha, Adele, 2025. "Forecasting the adoption of digital health technologies: The intention-expectation gap," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:epplan:v:112:y:2025:i:c:s0149718925001375
    DOI: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102670
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    References listed on IDEAS

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