IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v259y2022ics0360544222019181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-variant post-processing method for long-term numerical wind speed forecasts based on multi-region recurrent graph network

Author

Listed:
  • Duan, Zhu
  • Liu, Hui
  • Li, Ye
  • Nikitas, Nikolaos

Abstract

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) is widely used for long-term wind speed prediction. To reduce the inherent systematic error of the WRF, a graph-based wind speed prediction model is proposed by post-processing the WRF. The proposed model contains four stages. In stage 1, the WRF model is applied to generate raw wind speed prediction results. In stage 2, Planar Maximally Filtered Graph (PMFG) is used to construct an informative graph of the wind field. In stage 3, Deep Autoencoder-like Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (DANMF) and Subgraph Alignment and Region Organization (SARO) are utilized to divide the graph into several regions. In stage 4, Multi-region Recurrent Graph Network (MRGN) model is proposed to build multiple regional models, aggregate them via time-variant ensemble weights, and generate improved long-term wind speed prediction results. The wind speed prediction results on 25 real meteorological monitoring nodes show that: (1) the proposed model outperforms WRF and 3 state-of-the-art models with a 95% confidence level; (2) the proposed model tends to produce better performance in strongly dynamic wind speed; (3) the proposed model has enough computational efficiency for practice. In conclusion, the proposed model is effective to improve WRF performance and has application potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui & Li, Ye & Nikitas, Nikolaos, 2022. "Time-variant post-processing method for long-term numerical wind speed forecasts based on multi-region recurrent graph network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:259:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222019181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.125021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222019181
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Le, Khoa Xuan & Huang, Ming Jun & Wilson, Christopher & Shah, Nikhilkumar N. & Hewitt, Neil J., 2020. "Tariff-based load shifting for domestic cascade heat pump with enhanced system energy efficiency and reduced wind power curtailment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    2. Yıldıran, Uğur & Kayahan, İsmail, 2018. "Risk-averse stochastic model predictive control-based real-time operation method for a wind energy generation system supported by a pumped hydro storage unit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 631-643.
    3. Zandrazavi, Seyed Farhad & Guzman, Cindy Paola & Pozos, Alejandra Tabares & Quiros-Tortos, Jairo & Franco, John Fredy, 2022. "Stochastic multi-objective optimal energy management of grid-connected unbalanced microgrids with renewable energy generation and plug-in electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Liu, Yanli & Wang, Junyi, 2022. "Transfer learning based multi-layer extreme learning machine for probabilistic wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    5. Cai, Haoshu & Jia, Xiaodong & Feng, Jianshe & Li, Wenzhe & Hsu, Yuan-Ming & Lee, Jay, 2020. "Gaussian Process Regression for numerical wind speed prediction enhancement," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2112-2123.
    6. Xu, Weifeng & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Zhou, Yong & Xia, Qian & Gong, Yu & Liu, Yini, 2021. "Multi-step wind speed prediction by combining a WRF simulation and an error correction strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 772-782.
    7. Neshat, Mehdi & Nezhad, Meysam Majidi & Abbasnejad, Ehsan & Mirjalili, Seyedali & Groppi, Daniele & Heydari, Azim & Tjernberg, Lina Bertling & Astiaso Garcia, Davide & Alexander, Bradley & Shi, Qinfen, 2021. "Wind turbine power output prediction using a new hybrid neuro-evolutionary method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    8. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2022. "Deep learning combined wind speed forecasting with hybrid time series decomposition and multi-objective parameter optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    9. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Chen, Chao, 2020. "Wind speed big data forecasting using time-variant multi-resolution ensemble model with clustering auto-encoder," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    10. Liu, Jizhen & Yao, Qi & Hu, Yang, 2019. "Model predictive control for load frequency of hybrid power system with wind power and thermal power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 555-565.
    11. Nie, Chun-Xiao & Song, Fu-Tie, 2018. "Constructing financial network based on PMFG and threshold method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 104-113.
    12. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    13. Vishwas Kukreti & Hirdesh K. Pharasi & Priya Gupta & Sunil Kumar, 2020. "A perspective on correlation-based financial networks and entropy measures," Papers 2004.09448, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fu, Wenlong & Fu, Yuchen & Li, Bailing & Zhang, Hairong & Zhang, Xuanrui & Liu, Jiarui, 2023. "A compound framework incorporating improved outlier detection and correction, VMD, weight-based stacked generalization with enhanced DESMA for multi-step short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    2. Wu, Binrong & Wang, Lin & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2022. "Interpretable wind speed prediction with multivariate time series and temporal fusion transformers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    3. Fang, Ping & Fu, Wenlong & Wang, Kai & Xiong, Dongzhen & Zhang, Kai, 2022. "A compositive architecture coupling outlier correction, EWT, nonlinear Volterra multi-model fusion with multi-objective optimization for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    4. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    5. Liu, Jiarui & Fu, Yuchen, 2023. "Decomposition spectral graph convolutional network based on multi-channel adaptive adjacency matrix for renewable energy prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    6. Ghadah Alkhayat & Syed Hamid Hasan & Rashid Mehmood, 2023. "A Hybrid Model of Variational Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory for Next-Hour Wind Speed Forecasting in a Hot Desert Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-39, December.
    7. Yang, Mao & Guo, Yunfeng & Huang, Yutong, 2023. "Wind power ultra-short-term prediction method based on NWP wind speed correction and double clustering division of transitional weather process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    8. Han, Yan & Mi, Lihua & Shen, Lian & Cai, C.S. & Liu, Yuchen & Li, Kai & Xu, Guoji, 2022. "A short-term wind speed prediction method utilizing novel hybrid deep learning algorithms to correct numerical weather forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    9. Qinguo Zhang & Xiaojian Liu, 2022. "Optimization of the Quality of the Automatic Transmission Shift and the Power Transmission Characteristics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, June.
    10. Liu, Xingdou & Zhang, Li & Wang, Jiangong & Zhou, Yue & Gan, Wei, 2023. "A unified multi-step wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction grids and wind farm monitoring data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 948-963.
    11. Luiz Almeida & Ana Soares & Pedro Moura, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Optimization Approaches for the Integration of Electric Vehicles in Public Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-26, June.
    12. Mahsa Dehghan Manshadi & Milad Mousavi & M. Soltani & Amir Mosavi & Levente Kovacs, 2022. "Deep Learning for Modeling an Offshore Hybrid Wind–Wave Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    13. Tan, Bifei & Lin, Zhenjia & Zheng, Xiaodong & Xiao, Fu & Wu, Qiuwei & Yan, Jinyue, 2023. "Distributionally robust energy management for multi-microgrids with grid-interactive EVs considering the multi-period coupling effect of user behaviors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    14. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    15. Zhang, Lifang & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Xinsong & Liu, Zhenkun, 2021. "Ensemble wind speed forecasting with multi-objective Archimedes optimization algorithm and sub-model selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    16. Lee, Yoonjae & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho, 2022. "Generative model-based hybrid forecasting model for renewable electricity supply using long short-term memory networks: A case study of South Korea's energy transition policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 69-87.
    17. Toufani, Parinaz & Nadar, Emre & Kocaman, Ayse Selin, 2022. "Short-term assessment of pumped hydro energy storage configurations: Up, down, or closed?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 1086-1095.
    18. Zhu, Dafeng & Yang, Bo & Ma, Chengbin & Wang, Zhaojian & Zhu, Shanying & Ma, Kai & Guan, Xinping, 2022. "Stochastic gradient-based fast distributed multi-energy management for an industrial park with temporally-coupled constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    19. Youssef Ait Ali & Mohammed Ouassaid & Zineb Cabrane & Soo-Hyoung Lee, 2023. "Enhanced Primary Frequency Control Using Model Predictive Control in Large-Islanded Power Grids with High Penetration of DFIG-Based Wind Farm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    20. Osaru Agbonaye & Patrick Keatley & Ye Huang & Motasem Bani Mustafa & Neil Hewitt, 2020. "Design, Valuation and Comparison of Demand Response Strategies for Congestion Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-29, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:259:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222019181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.