IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v253y2022ics0360544222009987.html

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on spatial-temporal graph transformer networks

Author

Listed:
  • Pan, Xiaoxin
  • Wang, Long
  • Wang, Zhongju
  • Huang, Chao

Abstract

Wind energy is a widely concerned renewable energy source. Accurate short-term wind speed forecasting is helpful for the stable operation of wind power systems, which is crucial to the wind power industry. In this paper, a Spatial-Temporal Graph Transformer Network (STGTN) is proposed to improve the performance of short-term wind speed forecasting. The proposed model consists of a temporal feature extraction module and a spatial feature extraction module and thus it can capture the temporal and spatial correlations between wind turbine nodes. A transformer based on the external attention mechanism and the graph convolutional layer is proposed to extract spatial features while a multilayer perceptron is employed to derive temporal features. Since the graph convolutional layer relies on the Euclidean spatial topology input, the location distribution of wind turbine nodes is not considered in the proposed model. To verify the performance of the STGTN model, five wind speed forecasting methods (with and without spatial dependencies) are employed as benchmarks. Experimental results show that the proposed model performs the best in terms of the mean absolute error, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error for each forecasting horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Xiaoxin & Wang, Long & Wang, Zhongju & Huang, Chao, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting based on spatial-temporal graph transformer networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:253:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222009987
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124095
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222009987
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124095?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, H.Z. & Wang, G.B. & Li, G.Q. & Peng, J.C. & Liu, Y.T., 2016. "Deep belief network based deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 80-93.
    2. Cao, Qing & Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2012. "Forecasting wind speed with recurrent neural networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 148-154.
    3. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    5. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    6. Hong, Ying-Yi & Satriani, Thursy Rienda Aulia, 2020. "Day-ahead spatiotemporal wind speed forecasting using robust design-based deep learning neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Shukur, Osamah Basheer & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam, 2015. "Daily wind speed forecasting through hybrid KF-ANN model based on ARIMA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 637-647.
    8. Chen, Kuilin & Yu, Jie, 2014. "Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 690-705.
    9. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    10. Qiaomu Zhu & Jinfu Chen & Lin Zhu & Xianzhong Duan & Yilu Liu, 2018. "Wind Speed Prediction with Spatio–Temporal Correlation: A Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    12. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bentsen, Lars Ødegaard & Warakagoda, Narada Dilp & Stenbro, Roy & Engelstad, Paal, 2023. "Spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting using graph networks and novel Transformer architectures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    2. Chen, Zhengganzhe & Zhang, Bin & Du, Chenglong & Meng, Wei & Meng, Anbo, 2024. "A novel dynamic spatio-temporal graph convolutional network for wind speed interval prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    3. Luo, Haiwei & Shi, Huifeng & Shi, Qiong & Chen, Xinjie & Duan, Yawen & Yan, Saisai, 2025. "Wind speed forecasting using dual-attention patch-based multiscale transformer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    4. Li, Shaopeng & Li, Xin & Jiang, Yan & Yang, Qingshan & Lin, Min & Peng, Liuliu & Yu, Jianhan, 2025. "A novel frequency-domain physics-informed neural network for accurate prediction of 3D spatio-temporal wind fields in wind turbine applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    5. Wu, Binrong & Yu, Sihao & Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin, 2024. "Interpretable wind speed forecasting with meteorological feature exploring and two-stage decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    6. Lu Peng & Sheng‐Xiang Lv & Lin Wang, 2024. "Explainable machine learning techniques based on attention gate recurrent unit and local interpretable model‐agnostic explanations for multivariate wind speed forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2064-2087, September.
    7. Lin, Shengmao & Wang, Shu & Xu, Xuefang & Li, Ruixiong & Shi, Peiming, 2024. "GAOformer: An adaptive spatiotemporal feature fusion transformer utilizing GAT and optimizable graph matrixes for offshore wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    8. Yang, Mao & Huang, Yutong & Xu, Chuanyu & Liu, Chenyu & Dai, Bozhi, 2025. "Review of several key processes in wind power forecasting: Mathematical formulations, scientific problems, and logical relations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PC).
    9. Wu, Tangjie & Ling, Qiang, 2024. "Self-supervised dynamic stochastic graph network for spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    10. Resifi, Sofien & Aawar, Elissar Al & Dasari, Hari Prasad & Jebari, Hatem & Hoteit, Ibrahim, 2025. "A novel deep learning approach for regional high-resolution spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting for energy applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    11. Ma, Long & Huang, Ling & Shi, Huifeng, 2023. "Multi-node wind speed forecasting based on a novel dynamic spatial–temporal graph network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    12. Wu, Binrong & Lin, Jiacheng & Liu, Rui & Wang, Lin, 2026. "A multi-dimensional interpretable wind speed forecasting model with two-stage feature exploring," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PB).
    13. Zhang, Dongqin & Hu, Gang & Song, Jie & Gao, Huanxiang & Ren, Hehe & Chen, Wenli, 2024. "A novel spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting method based on the microscale meteorological model and a hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    14. Wu, Tangjie & Ling, Qiang, 2024. "STELLM: Spatio-temporal enhanced pre-trained large language model for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    15. Wang, Sen & Sun, Yonghui & Zhang, Wenjie & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2025. "Optimization of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting for wind power based on ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    16. Zhe Dong & Yiyang Zhao & Anqi Wang & Meng Zhou, 2025. "Wind-Mambaformer: Ultra-Short-Term Wind Turbine Power Forecasting Based on Advanced Transformer and Mamba Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-22, February.
    17. Jiang, Wenjun & Liu, Bo & Liang, Yang & Gao, Huanxiang & Lin, Pengfei & Zhang, Dongqin & Hu, Gang, 2024. "Applicability analysis of transformer to wind speed forecasting by a novel deep learning framework with multiple atmospheric variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    18. Verdone, Alessio & Panella, Massimo & De Santis, Enrico & Rizzi, Antonello, 2025. "A review of solar and wind energy forecasting: From single-site to multi-site paradigm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    19. Liu, Ling & Wang, Jujie & Li, Jianping & Wei, Lu, 2023. "Dual-meta pool method for wind farm power forecasting with small sample data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    20. Ma, Long & Huang, Ling & Shi, Huifeng, 2023. "A novel spatial–temporal generative autoencoder for wind speed uncertainty forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    21. Li, Xuehan & Wang, Wei & Fang, Fang & Liu, Jizhen & Chen, Zhe, 2025. "Improving active power regulation for wind turbine by phase leading cascaded error-based active disturbance rejection control and multi-objective optimization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    22. Lv, Yunlong & Hu, Qin & Xu, Hang & Lin, Huiyao & Wu, Yufan, 2024. "An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on spatial-temporal attention graph convolutional model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    23. Du, Pei & Yang, Dongchuan & Li, Yanzhao & Wang, Jianzhou, 2024. "An innovative interpretable combined learning model for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    24. Wu, Xinning & Zhan, Haolin & Hu, Jianming & Wang, Ying, 2025. "Non-stationary GNNCrossformer: Transformer with graph information for non-stationary multivariate Spatio-Temporal wind power data forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PB).
    25. Ma, Jiawei & Du, Jie & Chen, Qixian & Jiang, Xinyu & Pan, Linlin, 2025. "Multi-feature extraction spatio-temporal interaction graph network for wind speed forecasting in windfarm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Shang, Zhihao & He, Zhaoshuang & Chen, Yao & Chen, Yanhua & Xu, MingLiang, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting system based on multivariate time series and multi-objective optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    3. Zhang, Lifang & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Xinsong & Liu, Zhenkun, 2021. "Ensemble wind speed forecasting with multi-objective Archimedes optimization algorithm and sub-model selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    4. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Huang, Kun & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Zhang, Shuai & Chen, Yong & Xiao, Jiuhong & Zhang, Wenyu & Feng, Ruijun, 2021. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on multivariate data secondary decomposition approach and deep learning algorithm with attention mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 688-704.
    6. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    7. Gong, Mingju & Yan, Changcheng & Xu, Wei & Zhao, Zhixuan & Li, Wenxiang & Liu, Yan & Li, Sheng, 2023. "Short-term wind power forecasting model based on temporal convolutional network and Informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    8. Wang, Yun & Duan, Xiaocong & Zhang, Fan & Wu, Guang & Zou, Runmin & Wan, Jie & Hu, Qinghua, 2025. "MFFDM-WLS: A multi-granularity feature-based coherent forecasting method for temporal hierarchical wind speed time series," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 400(C).
    9. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    10. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Zhenkun & Niu, Xinsong & Zhang, Lifang, 2021. "A combined forecasting system based on statistical method, artificial neural networks, and deep learning methods for short-term wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    11. Yang, Qiuling & Deng, Changhong & Chang, Xiqiang, 2022. "Ultra-short-term / short-term wind speed prediction based on improved singular spectrum analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 36-44.
    12. Wang, Yun & Xu, Houhua & Song, Mengmeng & Zhang, Fan & Li, Yifen & Zhou, Shengchao & Zhang, Lingjun, 2023. "A convolutional Transformer-based truncated Gaussian density network with data denoising for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    13. Duan, Jiandong & Wang, Peng & Ma, Wentao & Tian, Xuan & Fang, Shuai & Cheng, Yulin & Chang, Ying & Liu, Haofan, 2021. "Short-term wind power forecasting using the hybrid model of improved variational mode decomposition and Correntropy Long Short -term memory neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    14. Emeksiz, Cem & Tan, Mustafa, 2022. "Wind speed estimation using novelty hybrid adaptive estimation model based on decomposition and deep learning methods (ICEEMDAN-CNN)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    15. Wang, Shuai & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan & Zhao, Weigang, 2021. "A novel combined model for wind speed prediction – Combination of linear model, shallow neural networks, and deep learning approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Wu, Jie & Jin, Yuhao & Luo, Wenjun, 2025. "Prior and synergistic effects in multi-source information fusion for optimal wind speed forecasting model selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    17. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    18. Fang, Ping & Fu, Wenlong & Wang, Kai & Xiong, Dongzhen & Zhang, Kai, 2022. "A compositive architecture coupling outlier correction, EWT, nonlinear Volterra multi-model fusion with multi-objective optimization for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    19. Liang, Tao & Zhao, Qing & Lv, Qingzhao & Sun, Hexu, 2021. "A novel wind speed prediction strategy based on Bi-LSTM, MOOFADA and transfer learning for centralized control centers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    20. Liu, Xingdou & Zhang, Li & Wang, Jiangong & Zhou, Yue & Gan, Wei, 2023. "A unified multi-step wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction grids and wind farm monitoring data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 948-963.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:253:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222009987. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.