TRusT: A Two-stage Robustness Trade-off approach for the design of decentralized energy supply systems

The design of decentralized energy supply systems is a complex task and thus best addressed by mathematical optimization. However, design problems typically rely on uncertain input data, such as future energy demands or prices. Still, conventional optimization models are usually deterministic and thus neglect uncertainties. For this reason, the deterministic optimal solution is in general suboptimal or even infeasible. Robust design methods are available to guarantee security of energy supply, however, they usually lead to significant additional costs. In this work, we show that energy supply systems with guaranteed secure energy supply are not expensive per se. For this purpose, we propose the Two-stage Robustness Trade-off (TRusT) approach. The TRusT approach considers the trade-off between expected costs in the nominal scenario and costs in the worst case while guaranteeing security of energy supply. Thereby, the TRusT approach identifies balanced robust energy supply systems which are cost-efficient in both the daily business and the worst case. The TRusT approach can be applied and solved efficiently. In a case study, we identify robust design options which ensure security of energy supply at low additional costs. Hence, the TRusT approach is a suitable tool to design cost-efficient and secure energy systems.