How injustice can lead to energy policy failure: A case study from Guatemala

As global efforts to address climate change have intensified, incentivizing renewable energy development has become a pillar of Guatemala’s energy policy. Hydropower makes up over half of anticipated new electricity generation in the coming decade, yet these projects are heavily contested. Using energy justice as an analytical frame, I explore how the injustices embedded in policy design have led renewable energy development down the wrong path. I draw from a newly constructed database of hydropower conflicts between 2004 and 2018 to show that local opposition is not correlated to project size, but rather to the absence of distributive, procedural, and recognition justice. I discuss two interrelated policy decisions that give rise to justice concerns: a focus on private sector, incentive-based policies, and the absence of human rights protections as a pillar of national policy; international aid agencies have further exacerbated justice concerns. Community mobilization has successfully halted over 65% of contested projects—a third of all proposed capacity—demonstrating that injustice can have a measurable impact on goal attainment in the energy sector. Ultimately, this paper argues that as countries around the world attempt to speed the development of renewable energy, ensuring energy justice will be essential—both for the realization of human rights and for the success of national energy policy.