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Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models

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  • Benth, Fred Espen
  • Klüppelberg, Claudia
  • Müller, Gernot
  • Vos, Linda

Abstract

We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a non-stationary independent increment process for the low-frequency dynamics, and model the large fluctuations by a non-Gaussian stable CARMA process. The model allows for analytic futures prices, and we apply these to model and estimate the whole market consistently. Besides standard parameter estimation, an estimation procedure is suggested, where we fit the non-stationary trend using futures data with long time until delivery, and a robust L1-filter to find the states of the CARMA process. The procedure also involves the empirical and theoretical risk premia which – as a by-product – are also estimated. We apply this procedure to data from the German electricity exchange EEX, where we split the empirical analysis into base load and peak load prices. We find an overall negative risk premium for the base load futures contracts, except for contracts close to delivery, where a small positive risk premium is detected. Peak load contracts, on the other hand, show a clear positive risk premium, when they are close to delivery, while contracts in the longer end also have a negative premium.

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  • Benth, Fred Espen & Klüppelberg, Claudia & Müller, Gernot & Vos, Linda, 2014. "Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 392-406.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:392-406
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pham, Viet Son, 2020. "Lévy-driven causal CARMA random fields," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(12), pages 7547-7574.
    2. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2015. "Pricing of forwards and other derivatives in cointegrated commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 104-117.
    4. Borovkova, Svetlana & Schmeck, Maren Diane, 2017. "Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 51-65.
    5. Fred Benth & Nils Detering, 2015. "Pricing and hedging Asian-style options on energy," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 849-889, October.
    6. Hess, Markus, 2017. "Modeling positive electricity prices with arithmetic jump-diffusions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 496-507.
    7. Awdesch Melzer & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2017. "Pricing Green Financial Products," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Markus Hess, 2020. "Pricing electricity forwards under future information on the stochastic mean-reversion level," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(2), pages 751-767, December.
    9. Hinderks, W.J. & Wagner, A., 2020. "Factor models in the German electricity market: Stylized facts, seasonality, and calibration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Przybyłowicz, Paweł & Szölgyenyi, Michaela, 2021. "Existence, uniqueness, and approximation of solutions of jump-diffusion SDEs with discontinuous drift," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 403(C).
    11. Fred Espen Benth & Heidar Eyjolfsson, 2015. "Representation and approximation of ambit fields in Hilbert space," Papers 1509.08272, arXiv.org.
    12. Lorenzo Mercuri & Andrea Perchiazzo & Edit Rroji, 2020. "Finite Mixture Approximation of CARMA(p,q) Models," Papers 2005.10130, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    13. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2016. "A Structural Model for Electricity Forward Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    14. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Awdesch Melzer, 2021. "Pricing wind power futures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1083-1102, August.
    15. Müller, Gernot & Seibert, Armin, 2019. "Bayesian estimation of stable CARMA spot models for electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 267-277.
    16. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2018. "A space-time random field model for electricity forward prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-216.
    17. Lorenzo Mercuri & Andrea Perchiazzo & Edit Rroji, 2022. "A Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity," Papers 2208.02659, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    18. Vicky Fasen‐Hartmann & Sebastian Kimmig, 2020. "Robust estimation of stationary continuous‐time arma models via indirect inference," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 620-651, September.
    19. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Rowińska, Paulina A. & Veraart, Almut E.D. & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A multi-factor approach to modelling the impact of wind energy on electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    21. Fred Espen Benth & Hanna Zdanowicz, 2016. "Pricing And Hedging Of Energy Spread Options And Volatility Modulated Volterra Processes," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(01), pages 1-22, February.
    22. Fred Espen Benth & Asma Khedher & Mich`ele Vanmaele, 2017. "Pricing of commodity derivatives on processes with memory," Papers 1711.00307, arXiv.org.
    23. Fred Espen Benth & Asma Khedher & Michèle Vanmaele, 2020. "Pricing of Commodity Derivatives on Processes with Memory," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    24. Péter Kevei, 2018. "Asymptotic moving average representation of high-frequency sampled multivariate CARMA processes," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 70(2), pages 467-487, April.
    25. Fred Espen Benth & Hanna Zdanowicz, 2014. "Pricing and hedging of energy spread options and volatility modulated Volterra processes," Papers 1409.5801, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CARMA model; Electricity spot prices; Electricity futures prices; Continuous time linear model; Lévy process; Stable CARMA process; Risk premium; Robust filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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