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Comparison of indicator saturation and Markov regime-switching models for Brazilian electricity prices

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  • de Castro Matias, Marcos
  • Tabak, Benjamin Miranda

Abstract

In this study, we compared the results obtained from the application of two different approaches to model Brazilian electricity prices. One of them is the Indicator Saturation model, which consider simultaneously impulse, step, trend events and autocorrelation. The other one is the Markov regime-switching model. We considered the marginal operating cost as the Brazilian electricity spot price, and the study was applied in the four different Brazilian submarkets. We concluded that the Indicator Saturation approach outperforms the regime-switching model in terms of outlier detection. We discussed the relevance of this study as a response to the increase in electricity price volatility caused by the energy transition, as well as to enrich the debate related to the possible change in the methodology for calculating the Brazilian electricity spot price within the framework of the electricity sector reform underway in Brazil.

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  • de Castro Matias, Marcos & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2025. "Comparison of indicator saturation and Markov regime-switching models for Brazilian electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:144:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325001653
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108341
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    1. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2016. "Outlier detection in structural time series models: The indicator saturation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 180-202.
    2. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
    3. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Paulo Cesar Coutinho & Andre Rossi de Oliveira, 2013. "Trading Forward in the Brazilian Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 272-287.
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