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Technology prospects and the cross-section of stock returns

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  • Hsu, Po-Hsuan
  • Huang, Dayong

Abstract

In an economy with time-varying investment opportunities, the changes in technology prospects affect aggregate consumption and individual firm's future dividends, and lead to systematic technology risk. We construct a technology factor to track the changes in technology prospects measured by U.S. patent shocks, and find that this factor explains the growth of aggregate consumption, helps to price important stock portfolios, and carries significant risk premium. Our empirical results suggest the existence of technology risk in the cross-section of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Huang, Dayong, 2010. "Technology prospects and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 39-53, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:39-53
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    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Seema, 2018. "Technology-investing countries and stock return predictability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 159-179.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "Profitability of technology-investing Islamic and non-Islamic stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 70-81.
    4. Yuchao Xiao & Robert Faff & Philip Gharghori & Byoung-Kyu Min, 2017. "The Financial Performance of Socially Responsible Investments: Insights from the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 146(2), pages 353-364, December.
    5. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    6. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Technology shocks and stock returns: A long-term perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 67-83.
    7. Hegde, Shantaram P. & Mishra, Dev R., 2023. "Patented knowledge capital and implied equity risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    8. Du, Ding, 2013. "Another look at the cross-section and time-series of stock returns: 1951 to 2011," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 130-146.
    9. Ronald J. Balvers & Li Gu & Dayong Huang, 2017. "Profitability, Value, and Stock Returns in Production‐Based Asset Pricing without Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1621-1651, October.
    10. Galicia-Sanguino, Lucía & Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B. & López-Pérez, M. Victoria, 2021. "Trade integration and research and development investment as a proxy for idiosyncratic risk in the cross-section of stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Alshater, Muneer M. & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & El Khoury, Rim, 2023. "Dynamic asymmetric connectedness in technological sectors," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

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