IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v298y2022i1p380-398.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation methods for robust risk assessment and the distorted mix approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Sojung
  • Weber, Stefan

Abstract

Uncertainty requires suitable techniques for risk assessment. Combining stochastic approximation and stochastic average approximation, we propose an efficient algorithm to compute the worst case average value at risk in the face of tail uncertainty. Dependence is modelled by the distorted mix method that flexibly assigns different copulas to different regions of multivariate distributions. We illustrate the application of our approach in the context of financial markets and cyber risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Sojung & Weber, Stefan, 2022. "Simulation methods for robust risk assessment and the distorted mix approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 380-398.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:298:y:2022:i:1:p:380-398
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2021.07.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221721006007
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.07.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eling, Martin & Jung, Kwangmin, 2018. "Copula approaches for modeling cross-sectional dependence of data breach losses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 167-180.
    2. Bernard, Carole & Vanduffel, Steven, 2015. "A new approach to assessing model risk in high dimensions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 166-178.
    3. O. Bardou & N. Frikha & G. Pagès, 2016. "CVaR HEDGING USING QUANTIZATION-BASED STOCHASTIC APPROXIMATION ALGORITHM," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 184-229, January.
    4. Dißmann, J. & Brechmann, E.C. & Czado, C. & Kurowicka, D., 2013. "Selecting and estimating regular vine copulae and application to financial returns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 52-69.
    5. Paul Embrechts & Haiyan Liu & Tiantian Mao & Ruodu Wang, 2017. "Quantile-Based Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-65, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2018.
    6. Sujin Kim & Raghu Pasupathy & Shane G. Henderson, 2015. "A Guide to Sample Average Approximation," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Michael C Fu (ed.), Handbook of Simulation Optimization, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 207-243, Springer.
    7. Soumyadip Ghosh & Henry Lam, 2019. "Robust Analysis in Stochastic Simulation: Computation and Performance Guarantees," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 232-249, January.
    8. Daniel Bartl & Samuel Drapeau & Ludovic Tangpi, 2020. "Computational aspects of robust optimized certainty equivalents and option pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 287-309, January.
    9. Volker Krätschmer & Alexander Schied & Henryk Zähle, 2014. "Comparative and qualitative robustness for law-invariant risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 271-295, April.
    10. Rama Cont & Romain Deguest & Giacomo Scandolo, 2010. "Robustness and sensitivity analysis of risk measurement procedures," Post-Print hal-00413729, HAL.
    11. Fabio Bellini & Valeria Bignozzi, 2015. "On elicitable risk measures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 725-733, May.
    12. Volker Kratschmer & Alexander Schied & Henryk Zahle, 2012. "Comparative and qualitative robustness for law-invariant risk measures," Papers 1204.2458, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
    13. Aharon Ben‐Tal & Marc Teboulle, 2007. "An Old‐New Concept Of Convex Risk Measures: The Optimized Certainty Equivalent," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 449-476, July.
    14. Kakouris, Iakovos & Rustem, Berç, 2014. "Robust portfolio optimization with copulas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 28-37.
    15. Jose Blanchet & Karthyek Murthy, 2019. "Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(2), pages 565-600, May.
    16. Paul Glasserman & Xingbo Xu, 2014. "Robust risk measurement and model risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 29-58, January.
    17. Weber, Stefan, 2018. "Solvency II, or how to sweep the downside risk under the carpet," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 191-200.
    18. Bardou O. & Frikha N. & Pagès G., 2009. "Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 173-210, January.
    19. F. W. Meng & J. Sun & M. Goh, 2010. "Stochastic Optimization Problems with CVaR Risk Measure and Their Sample Average Approximation," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 146(2), pages 399-418, August.
    20. Rama Cont & Romain Deguest & Giacomo Scandolo, 2010. "Robustness and sensitivity analysis of risk measurement procedures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 593-606.
    21. Hailin Sun & Huifu Xu & Yong Wang, 2014. "Asymptotic Analysis of Sample Average Approximation for Stochastic Optimization Problems with Joint Chance Constraints via Conditional Value at Risk and Difference of Convex Functions," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 257-284, April.
    22. Yuhong Xu, 2014. "Robust valuation and risk measurement under model uncertainty," Papers 1407.8024, arXiv.org.
    23. Embrechts, Paul & Puccetti, Giovanni & Rüschendorf, Ludger, 2013. "Model uncertainty and VaR aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2750-2764.
    24. Bernard, Carole & Jiang, Xiao & Wang, Ruodu, 2014. "Risk aggregation with dependence uncertainty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-108.
    25. Shushang Zhu & Masao Fukushima, 2009. "Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk with Application to Robust Portfolio Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1155-1168, October.
    26. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng & Chris C. Heyde, 2013. "External Risk Measures and Basel Accords," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 393-417, August.
    27. Stefan Weber, 2006. "Distribution‐Invariant Risk Measures, Information, And Dynamic Consistency," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 419-441, April.
    28. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
    29. Mark Broadie & Deniz Cicek & Assaf Zeevi, 2011. "General Bounds and Finite-Time Improvement for the Kiefer-Wolfowitz Stochastic Approximation Algorithm," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1211-1224, October.
    30. Thomas Breuer & Imre Csiszár, 2016. "Measuring Distribution Model Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 395-411, April.
    31. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    32. Jörn Dunkel & Stefan Weber, 2010. "Stochastic Root Finding and Efficient Estimation of Convex Risk Measures," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1505-1521, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sojung Kim & Stefan Weber, 2020. "Simulation Methods for Robust Risk Assessment and the Distorted Mix Approach," Papers 2009.03653, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Carole Bernard & Silvana M. Pesenti & Steven Vanduffel, 2022. "Robust Distortion Risk Measures," Papers 2205.08850, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    3. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2016. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1056-1072, October.
    4. Liu, Peng & Wang, Ruodu & Wei, Linxiao, 2020. "Is the inf-convolution of law-invariant preferences law-invariant?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 144-154.
    5. Zhaolin Hu & Dali Zhang, 2018. "Utility‐based shortfall risk: Efficient computations via Monte Carlo," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(5), pages 378-392, August.
    6. Asimit, Alexandru V. & Bignozzi, Valeria & Cheung, Ka Chun & Hu, Junlei & Kim, Eun-Seok, 2017. "Robust and Pareto optimality of insurance contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(2), pages 720-732.
    7. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Fernanda Maria Muller & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2017. "On a robust risk measurement approach for capital determination errors minimization," Papers 1707.09829, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    8. Jose Blanchet & Henry Lam & Yang Liu & Ruodu Wang, 2020. "Convolution Bounds on Quantile Aggregation," Papers 2007.09320, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    9. Burzoni, Matteo & Munari, Cosimo & Wang, Ruodu, 2022. "Adjusted Expected Shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Carole Bernard & Ludger Rüschendorf & Steven Vanduffel & Ruodu Wang, 2017. "Risk bounds for factor models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 631-659, July.
    11. Xue Dong He & Xianhua Peng, 2017. "Surplus-Invariant, Law-Invariant, and Conic Acceptance Sets Must be the Sets Induced by Value-at-Risk," Papers 1707.05596, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    12. Fissler Tobias & Ziegel Johanna F., 2021. "On the elicitability of range value at risk," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 38(1-2), pages 25-46, January.
    13. Ruodu Wang & Yunran Wei & Gordon E. Willmot, 2020. "Characterization, Robustness, and Aggregation of Signed Choquet Integrals," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 993-1015, August.
    14. Matteo Burzoni & Cosimo Munari & Ruodu Wang, 2020. "Adjusted Expected Shortfall," Papers 2007.08829, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    15. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2020. "Inf-convolution and optimal risk sharing with countable sets of risk measures," Papers 2003.05797, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    16. Ruodu Wang, 2016. "Regulatory arbitrage of risk measures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 337-347, March.
    17. Lux, Thibaut & Papapantoleon, Antonis, 2019. "Model-free bounds on Value-at-Risk using extreme value information and statistical distances," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 73-83.
    18. Haiyan Liu & Bin Wang & Ruodu Wang & Sheng Chao Zhuang, 2023. "Distorted optimal transport," Papers 2308.11238, arXiv.org.
    19. Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "A theory for combinations of risk measures," Papers 1807.01977, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    20. Tobias Fissler & Jana Hlavinová & Birgit Rudloff, 2021. "Elicitability and identifiability of set-valued measures of systemic risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 133-165, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:298:y:2022:i:1:p:380-398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.