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The impact of model risk on dynamic portfolio selection under multi-period mean-standard-deviation criterion

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  • Penev, Spiridon
  • Shevchenko, Pavel V.
  • Wu, Wei

Abstract

We quantify model risk of a financial portfolio whereby a multi-period mean-standard-deviation criterion is used as a selection criterion. In this work, model risk is defined as the loss due to uncertainty of the underlying distribution of the returns of the assets in the portfolio. The uncertainty is measured by the Kullback–Leibler divergence, i.e., the relative entropy. In the worst case scenario, the optimal robust strategy can be obtained in a semi-analytical form as a solution of a system of nonlinear equations. Several numerical results are presented which allow us to compare the performance of this robust strategy with the optimal non-robust strategy. For illustration, we also quantify the model risk associated with an empirical dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Penev, Spiridon & Shevchenko, Pavel V. & Wu, Wei, 2019. "The impact of model risk on dynamic portfolio selection under multi-period mean-standard-deviation criterion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 772-784.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:273:y:2019:i:2:p:772-784
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.026
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    1. Masoud Rahiminezhad Galankashi & Farimah Mokhatab Rafiei & Maryam Ghezelbash, 2020. "Portfolio selection: a fuzzy-ANP approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-34, December.
    2. Lassance, Nathan & Vrins, Frédéric, 2023. "Portfolio selection: A target-distribution approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(1), pages 302-314.
    3. N'Golo Kone, 2020. "A Multi-Period Portfolio Selection in a Large Financial Market," Working Paper 1439, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    4. Roberto Baviera & Giulia Bianchi, 2019. "Model risk in mean-variance portfolio selection: an analytic solution to the worst-case approach," Papers 1902.06623, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    5. Kirkby, J. Lars & Mitra, Sovan & Nguyen, Duy, 2020. "An analysis of dollar cost averaging and market timing investment strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1168-1186.
    6. Zsurkis, Gabriel & Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2024. "First passage times in portfolio optimization: A novel nonparametric approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 1074-1085.
    7. Roberto Baviera & Giulia Bianchi, 2021. "Model risk in mean-variance portfolio selection: an analytic solution to the worst-case approach," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 81(2), pages 469-491, October.

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