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Contrarian investment strategy with data envelopment analysis concept

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  • Kadoya, Susumu
  • Kuroko, Takashi
  • Namatame, Takashi

Abstract

One of the typical issues in financial literature is that the market tends to be overly pessimistic about value stocks, many of which are past losers. Therefore, over-reactions might capture by measuring earnings surprise vary with past return levels. In this paper, we propose a new index for an effective investment strategy to capture the return-reversal effect using both Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Inverted DEA in order to consider the above characteristics of the market. Our investment strategy using the new index exhibits better performance than the naive return-reversal strategy that only uses past returns or earnings surprise. In addition, the correlations between our new index and commonly used value indices are insignificant, and the value indices cannot represent the over-valued (under-valued) situations perfectly. Hence, considering both proposed and value indices like book-to-price one, we could select value stocks more effectively than by using only one of these indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kadoya, Susumu & Kuroko, Takashi & Namatame, Takashi, 2008. "Contrarian investment strategy with data envelopment analysis concept," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 120-131, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:189:y:2008:i:1:p:120-131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
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    4. Murthi, B. P. S. & Choi, Yoon K. & Desai, Preyas, 1997. "Efficiency of mutual funds and portfolio performance measurement: A non-parametric approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 408-418, April.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Horta, Isabel M. & Camanho, Ana S., 2015. "A nonparametric methodology for evaluating convergence in a multi-input multi-output setting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 554-561.
    2. Eero J. Pätäri & Timo H. Leivo & J.V. Samuli Honkapuro, 2010. "Enhancement of value portfolio performance using data envelopment analysis," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(3), pages 223-246, August.
    3. Ioannis E. Tsolas, 2020. "Financial Performance Assessment of Construction Firms by Means of RAM-Based Composite Indicators," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Rapee PONGPANICH & Ke-Chung PENG & Kamonthip MAICHUM, 2017. "The performance measurement of listed companies of the agribusiness sector on the stock exchange of Thailand," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 234-245.
    5. Pätäri, Eero & Leivo, Timo & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2012. "Enhancement of equity portfolio performance using data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 786-797.

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