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Bayesian kernel based classification for financial distress detection

Author

Listed:
  • Gestel, Tony Van
  • Baesens, Bart
  • Suykens, Johan A.K.
  • Van den Poel, Dirk
  • Baestaens, Dirk-Emma
  • Willekens, Marleen

Abstract

Corporate credit granting is a key commercial activity of financial institutions nowadays. A critical first step in the credit granting process usually involves a careful financial analysis of the creditworthiness of the potential client. Wrong decisions result either in foregoing valuable clients or, more severely, in substantial capital losses if the client subsequently defaults. It is thus of crucial importance to develop models that estimate the probability of corporate bankruptcy with a high degree of accuracy. Many studies focused on the use of financial ratios in linear statistical models, such as linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression. However, the obtained error rates are often high. In this paper, Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) classifiers, also known as kernel Fisher discriminant analysis, are applied within the Bayesian evidence framework in order to automatically infer and analyze the creditworthiness of potential corporate clients. The inferred posterior class probabilities of bankruptcy are then used to analyze the sensitivity of the classifier output with respect to the given inputs and to assist in the credit assignment decision making process. The suggested nonlinear kernel based classifiers yield better performances than linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression when applied to a real-life data set concerning commercial credit granting to mid-cap Belgian and Dutch firms.
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Suggested Citation

  • Gestel, Tony Van & Baesens, Bart & Suykens, Johan A.K. & Van den Poel, Dirk & Baestaens, Dirk-Emma & Willekens, Marleen, 2006. "Bayesian kernel based classification for financial distress detection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(3), pages 979-1003, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:172:y:2006:i:3:p:979-1003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hutchinson, James M & Lo, Andrew W & Poggio, Tomaso, 1994. " A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities via Learning Networks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 851-889, July.
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    4. Altman, Edward I. & Marco, Giancarlo & Varetto, Franco, 1994. "Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 505-529, May.
    5. Bart Baesens & Rudy Setiono & Christophe Mues & Jan Vanthienen, 2003. "Using Neural Network Rule Extraction and Decision Tables for Credit-Risk Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(3), pages 312-329, March.
    6. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
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    1. repec:eee:touman:v:33:y:2012:i:3:p:622-634 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Martens, David & Baesens, Bart & Van Gestel, Tony & Vanthienen, Jan, 2007. "Comprehensible credit scoring models using rule extraction from support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1466-1476, December.
    3. Lessmann, Stefan & Voß, Stefan, 2009. "A reference model for customer-centric data mining with support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 520-530, December.
    4. Li, Hui & Hong, Lu-Yao & He, Jia-Xun & Xu, Xuan-Guo & Sun, Jie, 2013. "Small sample-oriented case-based kernel predictive modeling and its economic forecasting applications under n-splits-k-times hold-out assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 747-761.
    5. Geng, Ruibin & Bose, Indranil & Chen, Xi, 2015. "Prediction of financial distress: An empirical study of listed Chinese companies using data mining," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 236-247.
    6. repec:eee:apmaco:v:251:y:2015:i:c:p:431-441 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:1:d:10.1057_jors.2009.104 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Brandner, Hubertus & Lessmann, Stefan & Voß, Stefan, 2013. "A memetic approach to construct transductive discrete support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(3), pages 581-595.
    9. repec:spr:fininn:v:1:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-015-0005-6 is not listed on IDEAS

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