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Scenario planning including ecosystem services for a coastal region in South Australia


  • Sandhu, Harpinder
  • Clarke, Beverley
  • Baring, Ryan
  • Anderson, Sharolyn
  • Fisk, Claire
  • Dittmann, Sabine
  • Walker, Stewart
  • Sutton, Paul
  • Kubiszewski, Ida
  • Costanza, Robert


Coastal regions provide vital ecosystem services for the human well-being. Rapid economic growth and increasing population in coastal regions is exerting more pressure on coastal environments. Here we develop four plausible scenarios to the year 2050 that address above issues in the northern Adelaide coastline, South Australia. Four scenarios were named after their characteristics, Lacuna, Gold Coast SA, Down to Earth, and Green & Gold. Lacuna and Gold Coast SA. Economy declined significantly in Lacuna, whereas, there is highest annual GDP growth (3.5%) in Gold Coast SA, which was closely followed by Green & Gold scenario (3%), GDP under Down to Earth grows at moderate 1.5%. There is highest population growth in Gold Coast SA followed by Green & Gold, Down to Earth and Lacuna. Gold Coast SA scenario led to high inequality as estimated by the Gini co-efficient of 0.45 compared to the current value of 0.33. Ecosystem services declined rapidly under Green & Gold and Lacuna as compared to the other two scenarios. The combination of scenario planning and ecosystem services valuation provides the capacity to guide coastal planning by illustrating enhanced social, environmental and economic benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandhu, Harpinder & Clarke, Beverley & Baring, Ryan & Anderson, Sharolyn & Fisk, Claire & Dittmann, Sabine & Walker, Stewart & Sutton, Paul & Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert, 2018. "Scenario planning including ecosystem services for a coastal region in South Australia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PA), pages 194-207.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:31:y:2018:i:pa:p:194-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.04.006

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ida Kubiszewski & Sharolyn J. Anderson & Robert Costanza & Paul C. Sutton, 2016. "The Future of Ecosystem Services in Asia and the Pacific," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 389-404, September.
    2. Kubiszewski, Ida & Farley, Joshua & Costanza, Robert, 2010. "The production and allocation of information as a good that is enhanced with increased use," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 1344-1354, April.
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    4. Farber, Stephen C. & Costanza, Robert & Wilson, Matthew A., 2002. "Economic and ecological concepts for valuing ecosystem services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 375-392, June.
    5. Martinez-Harms, Maria Jose & Bryan, Brett A. & Figueroa, Eugenio & Pliscoff, Patricio & Runting, Rebecca K. & Wilson, Kerrie A., 2017. "Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 56-68.
    6. Tammi, Ilpo & Mustajärvi, Kaisa & Rasinmäki, Jussi, 2017. "Integrating spatial valuation of ecosystem services into regional planning and development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PB), pages 329-344.
    7. Outeiro, Luis & Häussermann, Vreni & Viddi, Francisco & Hucke-Gaete, Rodrigo & Försterra, Günter & Oyarzo, Hugo & Kosiel, Klaus & Villasante, Sebastian, 2015. "Using ecosystem services mapping for marine spatial planning in southern Chile under scenario assessment," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 341-353.
    8. Ida Kubiszewski, Sharolyn J. Anderson, Robert Costanza and Paul C. Sutton, 2016. "The Future of Ecosystem Services in Asia and the Pacific," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 201629, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Podolak, Kristen & Lowe, Erik & Wolny, Stacie & Nickel, Barry & Kelsey, Rodd, 2017. "Informing watershed planning and policy in the Truckee River basin through stakeholder engagement, scenario development, and impact evaluation," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-135.
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    11. Sutton, Paul C. & Anderson, Sharolyn J. & Costanza, Robert & Kubiszewski, Ida, 2016. "The ecological economics of land degradation: Impacts on ecosystem service values," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 182-192.
    12. Turner, Katrine Grace & Anderson, Sharolyn & Gonzales-Chang, Mauricio & Costanza, Robert & Courville, Sasha & Dalgaard, Tommy & Dominati, Estelle & Kubiszewski, Ida & Ogilvy, Sue & Porfirio, Luciana &, 2016. "A review of methods, data, and models to assess changes in the value of ecosystem services from land degradation and restoration," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 319(C), pages 190-207.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serrao-Neumann, Silvia & Schuch, Gemma & Cox, Melanie & Low Choy, Darryl, 2019. "Scenario planning for climate change adaptation for natural resource management: Insights from the Australian East Coast Cluster," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Peng, Jian & Hu, Xiaoxu & Wang, Xiaoyu & Meersmans, Jeroen & Liu, Yanxu & Qiu, Sijing, 2019. "Simulating the impact of Grain-for-Green Programme on ecosystem services trade-offs in Northwestern Yunnan, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    3. Keenan, Rodney J. & Pozza, Greg & Fitzsimons, James A., 2019. "Ecosystem services in environmental policy: Barriers and opportunities for increased adoption," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-1.


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