IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v513y2026ics0304380025004144.html

Multi-agent simulation for dengue spread forecast: A case study for two Brazilian cities

Author

Listed:
  • Araújo, Carlos Victor Dantas
  • Usberti, Fábio Luiz
  • de Oliveira, Emily Brito
  • de Assis, Laura Silva
  • Cavellucci, Celso

Abstract

This study introduces a multi-agent-based simulation (MABS) methodology for modeling the transmission spread of the dengue virus. The proposed methodology provides a flexible and adaptable approach to simulate the spread of dengue, accounting for the complex interactions between human populations, mosquitoes, and the environment. By leveraging agent-based modeling techniques, we can capture the stochastic nature of disease transmission and explore the impact of various factors, such as human behavior and vector control interventions. The model’s ability to generate realistic scenarios, even in the face of limited data, makes it a valuable tool for understanding the epidemiology of dengue and informing public health strategies, thus, this approach can also serve as a visualization and decision-support tool. The effectiveness of the proposed MABS framework is validated through its application to the cities of Alto Santo and Limoeiro, Brazil. However, it is easy to adapt to other cities using basic geographic information and historical data to determine optimal parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Araújo, Carlos Victor Dantas & Usberti, Fábio Luiz & de Oliveira, Emily Brito & de Assis, Laura Silva & Cavellucci, Celso, 2026. "Multi-agent simulation for dengue spread forecast: A case study for two Brazilian cities," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 513(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:513:y:2026:i:c:s0304380025004144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111428
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380025004144
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111428?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maneerat, Somsakun & Daudé, Eric, 2016. "A spatial agent-based simulation model of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti to explore its population dynamics in urban areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 66-78.
    2. Boeing, Geoff, 2017. "OSMnx: New Methods for Acquiring, Constructing, Analyzing, and Visualizing Complex Street Networks," SocArXiv q86sd, Center for Open Science.
    3. Sean M Cavany & Guido España & Alun L Lloyd & Gonzalo M Vazquez-Prokopec & Helvio Astete & Lance A Waller & Uriel Kitron & Thomas W Scott & Amy C Morrison & Robert C Reiner Jr & T Alex Perkins, 2023. "Fusing an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics with a statistical reconstruction of spatio-temporal abundance patterns," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Xue, Ling & Zhang, Hongyu & Sun, Wei & Scoglio, Caterina, 2021. "Transmission dynamics of multi-strain dengue virus with cross-immunity," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    5. repec:osf:socarx:q86sd_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Srivastav, Akhil Kumar & Steindorf, Vanessa & Stollenwerk, Nico & Aguiar, Maíra, 2023. "The effects of public health measures on severe dengue cases: An optimal control approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chahine, Ricardo & Duarte, Jorge & Gkritza, Konstantina, 2025. "Effect of protected bike lanes on bike-sharing ridership: A New York City case study," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Matteo Böhm & Mirco Nanni & Luca Pappalardo, 2022. "Gross polluters and vehicle emissions reduction," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 699-707, August.
    3. Shah, Nitesh R. & Ziedan, Abubakr & Brakewood, Candace & Cherry, Christopher R., 2023. "Shared e-scooter service providers with large fleet size have a competitive advantage: Findings from e-scooter demand and supply analysis of Nashville, Tennessee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Lorenzo Barbieri & Roberto D’Autilia & Paola Marrone & Ilaria Montella, 2023. "Graph Representation of the 15-Minute City: A Comparison between Rome, London, and Paris," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Miotti, Marco & Needell, Zachary A. & Jain, Rishee K., 2023. "The impact of urban form on daily mobility demand and energy use: Evidence from the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    6. Rahman, Fabiha & Oliver, Robert & Buehler, Ralph & Lee, Jinhyung & Crawford, Thomas & Kim, Junghwan, 2025. "Impacts of point of interest (POI) data selection on 15-Minute City (15-MC) accessibility scores and inequality assessments," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Shiqin Liu & Carl Higgs & Jonathan Arundel & Geoff Boeing & Nicholas Cerdera & David Moctezuma & Ester Cerin & Deepti Adlakha & Melanie Lowe & Billie Giles-Corti, 2021. "A Generalized Framework for Measuring Pedestrian Accessibility around the World Using Open Data," Papers 2105.08814, arXiv.org.
    8. Du, Yuchen & Yang, Hai & Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Le, Tho V., 2025. "Two-stage stochastic fleet and battery sizing with routing optimization for sidewalk delivery robots," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    9. Ospina, Juan P. & Duque, Juan C. & Botero-Fernández, Verónica & Montoya, Alejandro, 2022. "The maximal covering bicycle network design problem," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 222-236.
    10. Brinkley, Catherine & Raj, Subhashni, 2022. "Perfusion and urban thickness: The shape of cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Ilan Lobel & Sébastien Martin, 2025. "Detours in Shared Rides," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(2), pages 1716-1736, February.
    12. Jorge Ubirajara Pedreira Junior & Antônio Nélson Rodrigues da Silva & Cira Souza Pitombo, 2022. "Car-Free Day on a University Campus: Determinants of Participation and Potential Impacts on Sustainable Travel Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Gal Neria & Florentin D. Hildebrandt & Michal Tzur & Marlin W. Ulmer, 2025. "The Restaurant Meal Delivery Problem with Ghost Kitchens," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 433-450, March.
    14. Spencer Leitch & Zhiyuan Wei, 2024. "Improving spatial access to healthcare facilities: an integrated approach with spatial analysis and optimization modeling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 1057-1074, October.
    15. Geoff Boeing, 2020. "Planarity and street network representation in urban form analysis," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(5), pages 855-869, June.
    16. Aston, Laura & Currie, Graham & Kamruzzaman, Md. & Delbosc, Alexa & Brands, Ties & van Oort, Niels & Teller, David, 2021. "Multi-city exploration of built environment and transit mode use: Comparison of Melbourne, Amsterdam and Boston," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Alves d'Acampora, Bárbara Heliodora & Maraschin, Clarice & Taufemback, Cleiton Guollo, 2023. "Landscape ecology and urban spatial configuration: Exploring a methodological relationship. Application in Pelotas, Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    18. Jinmo Rhee, 2025. "Comparative analysis of urban structures in three American Rust Belt cities," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 52(9), pages 2066-2083, November.
    19. Elijah Knaap & Sergio Rey, 2024. "Segregated by design? Street network topological structure and the measurement of urban segregation," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 51(7), pages 1408-1429, September.
    20. Pan, Huijun & Huang, Yu, 2024. "TOD typology and station area vibrancy: An interpretable machine learning approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:513:y:2026:i:c:s0304380025004144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.