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A stage-structured hierarchical Bayes model for the babassu palm tree population dynamics – Estimated from anthropogenic open area data sets

Author

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  • Sirakov, Nikolay
  • Fontez, Bénédicte
  • Libourel, Thérèse
  • dos Santos, Alessio
  • Mitja, Danielle
  • Loisel, Patrice

Abstract

The babassu palm tree (Attalea speciosa Mart. ex Spreng.) is an endemic species of Amazon forests, and has social and economical impact/utility. Deforestation highlights this palm tree in anthropogenic open areas (pastures and cultivated fields). Simultaneously, knowledge concerning the sustainable functioning of the species within these manmade environments is sorely lacking: its life cycle is not well known, and its population dynamics remains unstudied. In this study, our objective was to generate a model of the population dynamics of the babassu palm tree, validated by in situ analysis, to understand how babassu, a forest species, adapts to pastureland and, under certain conditions, becomes invasive. We propose a random matrix model with aggregated variables based on the biological stages of the species as the input. The probabilities of the between-stage transition matrix were modelled using a Dirichlet-multinomial model with a hierarchy taking geographical organization, i.e. transect level, into account. The integration of prior information was formulated through a Bayesian approach. This Bayesian hierarchical matrix model enabled us to demonstrate a bottleneck in the population dynamics and a high year-dependent mortality rate at an early stage.

Suggested Citation

  • Sirakov, Nikolay & Fontez, Bénédicte & Libourel, Thérèse & dos Santos, Alessio & Mitja, Danielle & Loisel, Patrice, 2019. "A stage-structured hierarchical Bayes model for the babassu palm tree population dynamics – Estimated from anthropogenic open area data sets," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 14-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:400:y:2019:i:c:p:14-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.02.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gunnhildur Högnadóttir Steinbakk & Geir Olve Storvik, 2009. "Posterior Predictive p‐values in Bayesian Hierarchical Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(2), pages 320-336, June.
    2. Helser, Thomas E. & Lai, Han-lin & Black, Bryan A., 2012. "Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Pacific geoduck growth increment data and climate indices," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 210-220.
    3. Jos Barlow & Gareth D. Lennox & Joice Ferreira & Erika Berenguer & Alexander C. Lees & Ralph Mac Nally & James R. Thomson & Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz & Julio Louzada & Victor Hugo Fonseca Olivei, 2016. "Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation," Nature, Nature, vol. 535(7610), pages 144-147, July.
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