IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v385y2018icp78-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population persistence in the face of climate change and competition: A battle on two fronts

Author

Listed:
  • Rinnan, D. Scott

Abstract

Many species undergo significant shifts in population distribution in response to changes in climate. This response can introduce a species to new competition from invasive organisms, or influence the dynamics of an otherwise balanced ecosystem. How can a species ensure its own survival while dealing with both interspecific competition and the effects of climate change? We examine a two-species discrete-time, continuous-space population model to determine conditions for coexistence and criteria for persistence in a changing climate. Our analysis suggests that the cost of keeping pace with climate change can weaken the ability of a species to compete with others, and that climate change has the capacity to shift the stable-state solution of the population model. These effects are somewhat mitigated by niche differentiation, with the potential for habitat considered inhospitable to one species to provide refuge for the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Rinnan, D. Scott, 2018. "Population persistence in the face of climate change and competition: A battle on two fronts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 78-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:385:y:2018:i:c:p:78-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.07.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380018302394
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.07.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew J. Davis & Linda S. Jenkinson & John H. Lawton & Bryan Shorrocks & Simon Wood, 1998. "Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 391(6669), pages 783-786, February.
    2. Camille Parmesan & Nils Ryrholm & Constantí Stefanescu & Jane K. Hill & Chris D. Thomas & Henri Descimon & Brian Huntley & Lauri Kaila & Jaakko Kullberg & Toomas Tammaru & W. John Tennent & Jeremy A. , 1999. "Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6736), pages 579-583, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bosi, Stefano & Desmarchelier, David, 2018. "An economic model of metapopulation dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 196-204.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takuya Iwamura & Kerrie A Wilson & Oscar Venter & Hugh P Possingham, 2010. "A Climatic Stability Approach to Prioritizing Global Conservation Investments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Daniel K Gibson-Reinemer & Frank J Rahel, 2015. "Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Anja Jaeschke & Torsten Bittner & Anke Jentsch & Björn Reineking & Helmut Schlumprecht & Carl Beierkuhnlein, 2012. "Biotic Interactions in the Face of Climate Change: A Comparison of Three Modelling Approaches," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    5. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    6. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    7. Choden, Kunzang & Nitschke, Craig R. & Stewart, Stephen B. & Keenan, Rodney J., 2021. "The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of key tree species and Cordyceps in Bhutan: Implications for ecological functions and rural livelihoods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    8. Chaianunporn, Thotsapol & Hovestadt, Thomas, 2012. "Concurrent evolution of random dispersal and habitat niche width in host-parasitoid systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 241-250.
    9. Ernesto Azzurro & Paula Moschella & Francesc Maynou, 2011. "Tracking Signals of Change in Mediterranean Fish Diversity Based on Local Ecological Knowledge," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-8, September.
    10. Floris M. Beest & Efrén López-Blanco & Lars H. Hansen & Niels M. Schmidt, 2023. "Extreme shifts in habitat suitability under contemporary climate change for a high-Arctic herbivore," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-14, April.
    11. Bezerra, Antonio Diego M. & Pacheco Filho, Alípio J.S. & Bomfim, Isac G.A. & Smagghe, Guy & Freitas, Breno M., 2019. "Agricultural area losses and pollinator mismatch due to climate changes endanger passion fruit production in the Neotropics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 49-57.
    12. Trnka, M. & Muška, F. & Semerádová, D. & Dubrovský, M. & Kocmánková, E. & Žalud, Z., 2007. "European Corn Borer life stage model: Regional estimates of pest development and spatial distribution under present and future climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 61-84.
    13. Rocio Santiago & Monica Cristina Martins & Tais Nascimento & Luis Filipe de Barros & Matheus Vilaca & Emerson Peter Falcão & Nicacio Henriques da Silva & Maria Estrella Legaz & Carlos Vicente & Eugen, 2021. "Production of Bioactive Lichen Compounds by Alginate-Immobilized Bionts Isolated from Cladonia verticillaris: An in Vitro Study," Journal of Plant Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, December.
    14. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz, 2019. "Diversity in interaction strength promotes rich dynamical behaviours in a three-species ecological system," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 243-253.
    15. Zdeněk Laštůvka, 2009. "Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45(SpecialIs), pages 53-62.
    16. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    17. Gaikwad, Jitendra & Wilson, Peter D. & Ranganathan, Shoba, 2011. "Ecological niche modeling of customary medicinal plant species used by Australian Aborigines to identify species-rich and culturally valuable areas for conservation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(18), pages 3437-3443.
    18. Haruka Ohashi & Tomoko Hasegawa & Akiko Hirata & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Ikutaro Tsuyama & Katsuhiro Nakao & Yuji Kominami & Nobuyuki Tanaka & Yasuaki Hijioka & Tetsuya Matsui, 2019. "Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Murray, Rua & Plank, Michael J. & Godsoe, William, 2016. "Effects of dispersal and stochasticity on the presence–absence of multiple species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 49-59.
    20. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Park, Junpyo, 2021. "The interplay of rock-paper-scissors competition and environments mediates species coexistence and intriguing dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:385:y:2018:i:c:p:78-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.