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Effects of dispersal and stochasticity on the presence–absence of multiple species

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  • Mohd, Mohd Hafiz
  • Murray, Rua
  • Plank, Michael J.
  • Godsoe, William

Abstract

A key problem in ecology is to predict the presence–absence of species across a geographical region. Dispersal is thought to have an important influence on the range limits of species, and understanding this problem in a multi-species community with priority effects (i.e. initial abundances determine the presence–absence of species) is a challenging task because dispersal interacts with biotic and abiotic factors as well as demographic stochasticity. By using stochastic individual-based models (IBM) and deterministic models consisting of biotic interactions and environmental gradients, we investigate the joint effects of dispersal and stochasticity on the occurrence of priority effects that can shape the presence–absence of multiple species. Our analysis shows the conditions under which priority effects occur and disappear as dispersal intensity changes. Without dispersal, priority effects emerge in the presence of intense biotic interactions; only one species surviving at any given location, with no overlap in their ranges. Inclusion of dispersal first reduces the prevalence of priority effects (i.e. for weak dispersal), and then leads to their increase (i.e. for moderate dispersal); consequently, dispersal enhances the possibility for species ranges to overlap. Increasing dispersal strength above a threshold value leads to the disappearance of priority effects and causes extinction of some species. We also demonstrate contrasting observations of stochasticity on priority effects: while this phenomenon is more prevalent in the stochastic IBM than in the deterministic models for large populations, we observe fewer occurrences of priority effects in IBM for small populations; in particular, our IBM results show that priority effects are eliminated by weaker values of dispersal when population sizes are small than when they are large. This situation can induce an uncertainty in the predictions of species presence–absence. Overall, our results demonstrate how the interplay of dispersal and stochasticity can combine to result in the (dis-)appearance of priority effects that strongly determine the presence–absence of species.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Murray, Rua & Plank, Michael J. & Godsoe, William, 2016. "Effects of dispersal and stochasticity on the presence–absence of multiple species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 49-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:342:y:2016:i:c:p:49-59
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.09.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. A. Venail & R. C. MacLean & T. Bouvier & M. A. Brockhurst & M. E. Hochberg & N. Mouquet, 2008. "Diversity and productivity peak at intermediate dispersal rate in evolving metacommunities," Nature, Nature, vol. 452(7184), pages 210-214, March.
    2. Andrew J. Davis & Linda S. Jenkinson & John H. Lawton & Bryan Shorrocks & Simon Wood, 1998. "Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 391(6669), pages 783-786, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Md. Noorani, Mohd Salmi, 2021. "Local dispersal, trophic interactions and handling times mediate contrasting effects in prey-predator dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz, 2019. "Diversity in interaction strength promotes rich dynamical behaviours in a three-species ecological system," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 243-253.
    3. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Park, Junpyo, 2021. "The interplay of rock-paper-scissors competition and environments mediates species coexistence and intriguing dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    4. Aliyu, Murtala Bello & Mohd, Mohd Hafiz, 2021. "The interplay between mutualism, competition and dispersal promotes species coexistence in a multiple interactions type system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 452(C).
    5. Umar Sharif, Umi Syahirah Binti & Mohd, Mohd Hafiz, 2022. "Combined influences of environmental enrichment and harvesting mediate rich dynamics in an intraguild predation fishery system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 474(C).
    6. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Murray, Rua & Plank, Michael J. & Godsoe, William, 2017. "Effects of biotic interactions and dispersal on the presence-absence of multiple species," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 185-194.
    7. Park, Junpyo, 2021. "Evolutionary dynamics in the rock-paper-scissors system by changing community paradigm with population flow," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Karim, Md Aktar Ul & Aithal, Vikram & Bhowmick, Amiya Ranjan, 2023. "Random variation in model parameters: A comprehensive review of stochastic logistic growth equation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).

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