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Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach

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  • Halofsky, Jessica E.
  • Hemstrom, Miles A.
  • Conklin, David R.
  • Halofsky, Joshua S.
  • Kerns, Becky K.
  • Bachelet, Dominique

Abstract

We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure. Our results suggest that: (1) legacy effects incorporated in state-and-transition models realistically dampen climate change effects on vegetation; (2) species-specific response to fire built into state-and-transition models can result in increased resistance to climate change, as was the case for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, or increased sensitivity to climate change, as was the case for some shrublands and grasslands in the study area; and (3) vegetation could remain relatively stable in the short term, then shift rapidly as a consequence of increased disturbance such as wildfire and altered environmental conditions. Managers and other land stewards can use results from our linked models to better anticipate potential climate-induced shifts in local vegetation and resulting effects on wildlife habitat.

Suggested Citation

  • Halofsky, Jessica E. & Hemstrom, Miles A. & Conklin, David R. & Halofsky, Joshua S. & Kerns, Becky K. & Bachelet, Dominique, 2013. "Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 131-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:266:y:2013:i:c:p:131-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.07.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Shaw & Linwood Pendleton & D. Cameron & Belinda Morris & Dominique Bachelet & Kirk Klausmeyer & Jason MacKenzie & David Conklin & Gregrory Bratman & James Lenihan & Erik Haunreiter & Christopher Da, 2011. "The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 465-484, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleg Stepanov & Gilberto Câmara & Judith A. Verstegen, 2020. "Quantifying the Effect of Land Use Change Model Coupling," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Joshua S. Halofsky & Jessica E. Halofsky & Miles A. Hemstrom & Anita T. Morzillo & Xiaoping Zhou & Daniel C. Donato, 2017. "Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 83-95, May.
    3. Lee, Christine & Schlemme, Claire & Murray, Jessica & Unsworth, Robert, 2015. "The cost of climate change: Ecosystem services and wildland fires," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 261-269.
    4. King, David A. & Bachelet, Dominique M. & Symstad, Amy J. & Ferschweiler, Ken & Hobbins, Michael, 2015. "Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 297(C), pages 86-97.
    5. David Turner & David Conklin & John Bolte, 2015. "Projected climate change impacts on forest land cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 335-348, November.

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