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Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests in the Southwest USA

Author

Listed:
  • James H. Thorne

    (University of California)

  • Hyeyeong Choe

    (University of California)

  • Peter A. Stine

    (Pacific Southwest Research Station)

  • Jeanne C. Chambers

    (Rocky Mountain Research Station)

  • Andrew Holguin

    (University of California)

  • Amber C. Kerr

    (University of California
    USDA Climate Sub Hub for California)

  • Mark W. Schwartz

    (University of California
    Pacific Southwest Research Station)

Abstract

Climate change effects are already apparent in some Southwestern US forests and are expected to intensify in the coming decades, via direct (temperature, precipitation) and indirect (fire, pests, pathogens) stressors. We grouped Southwestern forests into ten major types to assess their climate exposure by 2070 using two global climate models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios representing wetter or drier conditions and current or lowered emission levels. We estimate future climate exposure over forests covering 370,144 km2 as the location and proportion of each type projected to experience climate conditions that fall outside 99% of those they currently occupy. By late century, 27–77% is climatically exposed under wetter or drier current emission levels, while lowered emission levels produce 10–50% exposure, respectively. This difference points to the benefits of reducing emissions from the RCP8.5 to the RCP4.5 track, with regard to forest retention. Exposed areas common to all four climate futures include central Arizona and the western slope of the Sierra Nevada. Vulnerability assessments also comprise sensitivity and adaptive capacity, which we scored subjectively by forest type according to the number of key stressors they are sensitive to and the resilience conferred by life history traits of their dominant tree species. Under the 2070 RCP8.5 emissions, four forest types are critically and six are highly vulnerable under the hotter GCM; and eight are highly and two moderately vulnerable under the wetter GCM. We discuss forest management adaptation strategies and the barriers to and co-benefits of such plans.

Suggested Citation

  • James H. Thorne & Hyeyeong Choe & Peter A. Stine & Jeanne C. Chambers & Andrew Holguin & Amber C. Kerr & Mark W. Schwartz, 2018. "Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests in the Southwest USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 387-402, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2010-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2010-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Shaw & Linwood Pendleton & D. Cameron & Belinda Morris & Dominique Bachelet & Kirk Klausmeyer & Jason MacKenzie & David Conklin & Gregrory Bratman & James Lenihan & Erik Haunreiter & Christopher Da, 2011. "The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 465-484, December.
    2. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehdi Asghari & Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari & Elham Akhlaghi Pirposhteh & Somayeh Farhang Dehghan, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution of the Thermo-Hygrometric Index (THI) during Cold Seasons: A Trend Analysis Study in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Patrick J. Comer & Jon C. Hak & Marion S. Reid & Stephanie L. Auer & Keith A. Schulz & Healy H. Hamilton & Regan L. Smyth & Matthew M. Kling, 2019. "Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index Applied to Major Vegetation Types of the Western Interior United States," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-27, July.
    3. Cheng He & Liguo Zhou & Weichun Ma & Yuan Wang, 2019. "Spatial Assessment of Urban Climate Change Vulnerability during Different Urbanization Phases," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Hyeyeong Choe & James H. Thorne, 2019. "Climate exposure of East Asian temperate forests suggests transboundary climate adaptation strategies are needed," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 51-67, September.

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