IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v250y2013icp294-306.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model

Author

Listed:
  • Gurkan, Zeren
  • Christensen, Asbjørn
  • Maar, Marie
  • Møller, Eva Friis
  • Madsen, Kristine Skovgaard
  • Munk, Peter
  • Mosegaard, Henrik

Abstract

Accounting for the individual variability and regional variations are important when predicting recruitment in fish species. Spatially explicit descriptions for recruitment in sandeels are necessary and sandeel growth and survival depend locally on zooplankton prey. We investigate the responses of larval and early juvenile Lesser Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) in the North Sea to local feeding conditions by an adapted version of a generic bioenergetic individual-based model for larval fish describing growth and survival. Prey encounter and physiological processes are described explicitly in the model, which allows analyzing the influence of prey on the growth and survival of sandeel. The model is coupled to a hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model with physical and prey fields and implemented in temporal and three-dimensional spatial settings. Zooplankton biomass simulated by the biogeochemical model is validated by Continuous Plankton Recorder survey time series data. Spatio-temporal dynamics of the sandeel cohorts are simulated by the integrated model framework for the period 2004–2006 and five major area divisions of suitable sandeel habitats in the North Sea. This allows obtaining insight into the influence of temperature variation and zooplankton availability on the growth and survival. To determine areas promising for recruitment, area divisions are compared and optimal time of hatching for higher survival to recruitment due to match–mismatch with prey is determined by comparing different hatching times. The effect of vertical diel migration behavior of sandeel on the model outcomes is also examined. Vertical migration of sandeel results in increased feeding ability and growth and decreased starvation mortality of individuals. Results show that areas of German Bight and Southern Bight with high zooplankton production support high growth of sandeel. Most sandeel survive to settling in the Dogger Bank area that has large retention on average and still productive in zooplankton. Hatching at the optimal time of March/February with matching zooplankton peak concentrations enhances the growth and survival. Growth correlates positively with the observed temperature trend. Survival correlates negatively with temperature and prominently, when the hatching is in winter.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurkan, Zeren & Christensen, Asbjørn & Maar, Marie & Møller, Eva Friis & Madsen, Kristine Skovgaard & Munk, Peter & Mosegaard, Henrik, 2013. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 294-306.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:250:y:2013:i:c:p:294-306
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.11.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380012005467
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.11.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Jingjie & Gurkan, Zeren & Jørgensen, Sven Erik, 2010. "Application of eco-exergy for assessment of ecosystem health and development of structurally dynamic models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(4), pages 693-702.
    2. Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Klumb, Robert A. & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Eslinger, David L. & Smith, S. Lan, 2007. "A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and se," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 144-164.
    3. Grégory Beaugrand & Keith M. Brander & J. Alistair Lindley & Sami Souissi & Philip C. Reid, 2003. "Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea," Nature, Nature, vol. 426(6967), pages 661-664, December.
    4. Gurkan, Zeren & Christensen, Asbjørn & van Deurs, Mikael & Mosegaard, Henrik, 2012. "Growth and survival of larval and early juvenile Lesser Sandeel in patchy prey field in the North Sea: An examination using individual-based modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 78-90.
    5. Maar, Marie & Møller, Eva Friis & Larsen, Jesper & Madsen, Kristine Skovgaard & Wan, Zhenwen & She, Jun & Jonasson, Lars & Neumann, Thomas, 2011. "Ecosystem modelling across a salinity gradient from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(10), pages 1696-1711.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gurkan, Zeren & Christensen, Asbjørn & van Deurs, Mikael & Mosegaard, Henrik, 2012. "Growth and survival of larval and early juvenile Lesser Sandeel in patchy prey field in the North Sea: An examination using individual-based modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 78-90.
    2. Werner, Francisco E. & Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Synthesis of the NEMURO model studies and future directions of marine ecosystem modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 211-223.
    3. Kong, Xiang-Zhen & Jørgensen, Sven Erik & He, Wei & Qin, Ning & Xu, Fu-Liu, 2013. "Predicting the restoration effects by a structural dynamic approach in Lake Chaohu, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 73-85.
    4. Mukai, Daiki & Kishi, Michio J. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Kurita, Yutaka, 2007. "The importance of spawning season on the growth of Pacific saury: A model-based study using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 165-173.
    5. Mackinson, S. & Daskalov, G. & Heymans, J.J. & Neira, S. & Arancibia, H. & Zetina-Rejón, M. & Jiang, H. & Cheng, H.Q. & Coll, M. & Arreguin-Sanchez, F. & Keeble, K. & Shannon, L., 2009. "Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 2972-2987.
    6. Wan, Zhenwen & Bi, Hongsheng, 2014. "Comparing model scenarios of variable plankton N/P ratio versus the constant one for the application in the Baltic Sea," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 28-39.
    7. Frisk, C. & Andersen, K.H. & Temming, A. & Herrmann, J.P. & Madsen, K.S. & Kraus, G., 2015. "Environmental effects on sprat (Sprattus sprattus) physiology and growth at the distribution frontier: A bioenergetic modelling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 299(C), pages 130-139.
    8. Kari Hyytiäinen & Lassi Ahlvik & Heini Ahtiainen & Janne Artell & Anni Huhtala & Kim Dahlbo, 2015. "Policy Goals for Improved Water Quality in the Baltic Sea: When do the Benefits Outweigh the Costs?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 61(2), pages 217-241, June.
    9. Jiang, Long & Xia, Meng & Ludsin, Stuart A. & Rutherford, Edward S. & Mason, Doran M. & Marin Jarrin, Jose & Pangle, Kevin L., 2015. "Biophysical modeling assessment of the drivers for plankton dynamics in dreissenid-colonized western Lake Erie," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 308(C), pages 18-33.
    10. Nurmi, Väinö & Ahtiainen, Heini, 2018. "Distributional Weights in Environmental Valuation and Cost-benefit Analysis: Theory and Practice," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 217-228.
    11. Golberg, Alexander, 2015. "Environmental exergonomics for sustainable design and analysis of energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 314-321.
    12. Allan O’Connor & David Audretsch, 2023. "Regional entrepreneurial ecosystems: learning from forest ecosystems," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1051-1079, March.
    13. Pethybridge, H. & Roos, D. & Loizeau, V. & Pecquerie, L. & Bacher, C., 2013. "Responses of European anchovy vital rates and population growth to environmental fluctuations: An individual-based modeling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 370-383.
    14. Niu, Zhiguang & Gou, Qianqian & Wang, Xiujun & Zhang, Ying, 2016. "Simulation of a water ecosystem in a landscape lake in Tianjin with AQUATOX: Sensitivity, calibration, validation and ecosystem prognosis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 335(C), pages 54-63.
    15. Buytaert, V. & Muys, B. & Devriendt, N. & Pelkmans, L. & Kretzschmar, J.G. & Samson, R., 2011. "Towards integrated sustainability assessment for energetic use of biomass: A state of the art evaluation of assessment tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3918-3933.
    16. Travers, M. & Shin, Y.-J. & Jennings, S. & Machu, E. & Huggett, J.A. & Field, J.G. & Cury, P.M., 2009. "Two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of plankton and fish models to predict ecosystem changes in the Benguela," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 3089-3099.
    17. Yoshie, Naoki & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Rose, Kenneth A. & Eslinger, David L. & Ware, Daniel M. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Parameter sensitivity study of the NEMURO lower trophic level marine ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 26-37.
    18. Kearney, Kelly A. & Stock, Charles & Aydin, Kerim & Sarmiento, Jorge L., 2012. "Coupling planktonic ecosystem and fisheries food web models for a pelagic ecosystem: Description and validation for the subarctic Pacific," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 237, pages 43-62.
    19. Kishi, Michio J. & Kashiwai, Makoto & Ware, Daniel M. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Eslinger, David L. & Werner, Francisco E. & Noguchi-Aita, Maki & Azumaya, Tomonori & Fujii, Masahiko & Hashimoto, Shinji & , 2007. "NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 12-25.
    20. Wu, Zijian & Wu, Xiaofu & Yang, Zhihui & Ouyang, Linnan, 2017. "A simple thermodynamic model for evaluating the ecological restoration effect on a manganese tailing wasteland," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 346(C), pages 20-29.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:250:y:2013:i:c:p:294-306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.