Comparison of modelling approaches to simulate the phenology of the European corn borer under future climate scenarios

The phenological development of insects is simulated predominantly via models based on the response of the organisms to air temperature. Despite of a large body of literature supporting the evidence that the organism physiological response to temperature is nonlinear, including a declining phase, most of these models calculate the rate of development using a linear approach, implying that air temperatures mostly does not fall outside of the linear region of response to temperature of the organism. Another simplification is represented by the calculation of the rate of development using daily mean air temperature, which has already been demonstrated being a reliable method only in limited conditions. It can be hypothesized that the use of developmental models based on linear developmental rates, which can be successfully applied under climate conditions to which organisms are well adapted, could be inadequate under either future climatic scenarios or when extreme events occur (e.g., heat waves). In such contexts, linear responses might lead to interpretations of climate effects not consistent with the real organism physiological response to temperature.