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Energy price pass-through with long-term contracts

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  • Brewer, Dylan
  • Dench, Daniel
  • Rosenthal, Maxwell

Abstract

We study the pass-through of wholesale natural gas prices into 12-month fixed-rate residential contracts in Georgia’s deregulated natural gas market. Our theoretical model suggests that socially optimal contracts should uniformly pass through future wholesale fuel costs during the contract period. We find that total pass-through is close to complete, but almost entirely driven by contemporaneous and lagged wholesale prices. Future price pass-through is limited and sometimes negative, deviating from the theoretical socially optimal benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Brewer, Dylan & Dench, Daniel & Rosenthal, Maxwell, 2026. "Energy price pass-through with long-term contracts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:260:y:2026:i:c:s0165176525006378
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112800
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven L. Puller & Jeremy West, 2013. "Efficient Retail Pricing in Electricity and Natural Gas Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 350-355, May.
    2. Lucas W. Davis & Erich Muehlegger, 2010. "Do Americans consume too little natural gas? An empirical test of marginal cost pricing," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(4), pages 791-810, December.
    3. Barro, Robert J., 1977. "Long-term contracting, sticky prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 305-316, July.
    4. Alan S. Blinder, 1994. "On Sticky Prices: Academic Theories Meet the Real World," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 117-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Catherine Hausman, 2019. "Shock Value: Bill Smoothing and Energy Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 242-278, June.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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