IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v251y2025ics0165176525001521.html

Adjusted-range-based self-normalized autocorrelation tests

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, Jiajing
  • Zhu, Meiting
  • Linton, Oliver

Abstract

This paper presents adjusted range-based self-normalized tests for the autocorrelation function (ACF) in time series, which is crucial for understanding the dependence structure and making reliable statistical inferences. Our approach offers improved performance, especially when testing for the presence of first-order ACF. We demonstrate the efficacy of these tests through simulations and apply them to analyze COVID-19 case counts in Beijing. The results confirm the robustness of our methods, promising significant advancements in the detection of temporal dependence in complex data settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Jiajing & Zhu, Meiting & Linton, Oliver, 2025. "Adjusted-range-based self-normalized autocorrelation tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:251:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525001521
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112315
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525001521
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112315?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lobato I. N., 2001. "Testing That a Dependent Process Is Uncorrelated," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1066-1076, September.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 852, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Xiaofeng Shao, 2010. "A self‐normalized approach to confidence interval construction in time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 343-366, June.
    4. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
    5. Robert C. Jung & A. R. Tremayne, 2003. "Testing for serial dependence in time series models of counts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 65-84, January.
    6. Brendan P. M. McCabe & Gael M. Martin & David Harris, 2011. "Efficient probabilistic forecasts for counts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(2), pages 253-272, March.
    7. Hong, Yongmiao & Linton, Oliver & McCabe, Brendan & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Kolmogorov–Smirnov type testing for structural breaks: A new adjusted-range based self-normalization approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    8. M. A. Al‐Osh & A. A. Alzaid, 1987. "First‐Order Integer‐Valued Autoregressive (Inar(1)) Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 261-275, May.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    10. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    11. Jiajing Sun & Brendan P. McCabe, 2013. "Score statistics for testing serial dependence in count data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 315-329, May.
    12. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 814-823, December.
    13. Inoue, Atsushi & Solon, Gary, 2006. "A Portmanteau Test For Serially Correlated Errors In Fixed Effects Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 835-851, October.
    14. Lobato, I.N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N.E., 2002. "Testing For Zero Autocorrelation In The Presence Of Statistical Dependence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 730-743, June.
    15. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong, Yongmiao & Linton, Oliver & McCabe, Brendan & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Kolmogorov–Smirnov type testing for structural breaks: A new adjusted-range based self-normalization approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    2. Zhang, Jingsi & Jiang, Wenxin & Shao, Xiaofeng, 2013. "Bayesian model selection based on parameter estimates from subsamples," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(4), pages 979-986.
    3. Sun, Jiajing & Hong, Yongmiao & Linton, Oliver & Zhao, Xiaolu, 2022. "Adjusted-range self-normalized confidence interval construction for censored dependent data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    4. Li, Haiqi & Zhang, Ni & Zhou, Jin, 2025. "A new self-normalized forecast comparison test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    5. Pentti Saikkonen & Rickard Sandberg, 2016. "Testing for a Unit Root in Noncausal Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 99-125, January.
    6. Xiaofeng Shao, 2010. "Corrigendum: A self‐normalized approach to confidence interval construction in time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(5), pages 695-696, November.
    7. Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, 2017. "Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models With an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 349-358, July.
    8. Rim, Jongseok, 2024. "Comparative dynamics of housing finance: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. repec:cam:camjip:2316 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sven Otto, 2021. "Unit root testing with slowly varying trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 85-106, January.
    11. Kourogenis, Nikolaos & Pittis, Nikitas & Samartzis, Panagiotis, 2024. "Unbounded heteroscedasticity in autoregressive models," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    12. Gençay, Ramazan & Signori, Daniele, 2015. "Multi-scale tests for serial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 62-80.
    13. Giraitis, Liudas & Li, Yufei & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2024. "Robust inference on correlation under general heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    14. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    15. Hernández, Juan R., 2016. "Unit Root Testing in ARMA Models: A Likelihood Ratio Approach," MPRA Paper 100857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Yannick Hoga & Christian Schulz, 2025. "Self-Normalized Inference in (Quantile, Expected Shortfall) Regressions for Time Series," Papers 2502.10065, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    17. Hamdi Raissi, 2022. "On the dependence structure of the trade/no trade sequence of illiquid assets," Papers 2203.08223, arXiv.org.
    18. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates," Papers 2302.05193, arXiv.org.
    19. Qitong Chen & Shuwen Lai, 2026. "Self-normalized tests for multistep conditional predictive ability," Papers 2605.07404, arXiv.org.
    20. Lui, Yiu Lim & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2024. "Robust testing for explosive behavior with strongly dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    21. Xuexin Wang & Yixiao Sun, 2020. "An Asymptotic F Test for Uncorrelatedness in the Presence of Time Series Dependence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 536-550, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:251:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525001521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.