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Economic complexity and growth: Can value-added exports better explain the link?

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  • Koch, Philipp

Abstract

In economic literature, economic complexity is typically approximated on the basis of an economy’s gross export structure. However, in times of ever increasingly integrated global value chains, gross exports may convey an inaccurate image of a country’s economic performance since they also incorporate foreign value-added and double-counted exports. Thus, I introduce a new empirical approach approximating economic complexity based on a country’s value-added export structure. This approach leads to substantially different complexity rankings compared to established metrics. Moreover, the explanatory power of GDP per capita growth rates for a sample of 40 lower-middle- to high-income countries is considerably higher, even if controlling for typical growth regression covariates.

Suggested Citation

  • Koch, Philipp, 2021. "Economic complexity and growth: Can value-added exports better explain the link?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:198:y:2021:i:c:s0165176520304420
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109682
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    Cited by:

    1. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Do unilateral trade preferences help reduce poverty in beneficiary countries?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 249-288, February.
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. C'esar A. Hidalgo, 2022. "Knowledge is non-fungible," Papers 2205.02167, arXiv.org.
    4. Hidalgo, César A., 2023. "The policy implications of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
    5. Eduardo Hernandez-Rodriguez & Ron Boschma & Andrea Morrison & Xianjia Ye, 2023. "Functional upgrading and downgrading in global value chains: Evidence from EU regions using a relatedness/complexity framework," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2316, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jul 2023.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Do Unilateral Trade Preferences Help Reduce Poverty in Beneficiary Countries?," EconStor Preprints 247346, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Nordlund, Carl, 2023. "Transformations, trajectories and similarities of national production structures: a comparative fingerprinting approach," SocArXiv 6byxh, Center for Open Science.
    8. Koch, Philipp & Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang, 2021. "Yet another space: Why the Industry Space adds value to the understanding of structural change and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-213.
    9. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effects of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences Offered by QUAD Countries on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(1), pages 33-68.
    10. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the utilization of non-reciprocal trade preferences offered by the QUAD countries on beneficiary countries' economic complexity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. C'esar A. Hidalgo, 2022. "The Policy Implications of Economic Complexity," Papers 2205.02164, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    12. Stefan Apostol & Eduardo Hernández-Rodríguez, 2023. "Digitalisation in European regions: Unravelling the impact of relatedness and complexity on digital technology adoption and productivity growth," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2317, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2023.
    13. Liu, Bin & Gao, Qun & Liang, Lingfeng & Sun, Jide & Liu, Chunlu & Xu, Youquan, 2021. "Ecological relationships of global construction industries in sustainable economic and energy development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    14. Cesar A. Hidalgo, 2022. "Knowledge is non-fungible," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2229, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Nov 2022.
    15. María Guadalupe Montiel-Hernández & Carla Carolina Pérez-Hernández & Blanca Cecilia Salazar-Hernández, 2024. "The Intrinsic Links of Economic Complexity with Sustainability Dimensions: A Systematic Review and Agenda for Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-26, January.
    16. Ron Boschma, 2024. "An Evolutionary Approach to Regional Studies on Global Value Chains," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2402, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jan 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Complexity; Economic growth; Value-added exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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