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Score-driven dynamic patent count panel data models

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  • Blazsek, Szabolcs
  • Escribano, Alvaro

Abstract

In this paper, we propose the use of Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS) count panel data models. We compare the statistical performance of the static model with different dynamic models: finite distributed lag, exponential feedback and different DCS models. For DCS, we consider random walk or quasi-autoregressive dynamics. We use panel data for a large cross section of United States firms for period 1979–2000, and the Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator with fixed effects. The empirical results suggest that DCS has the best statistical performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro, 2016. "Score-driven dynamic patent count panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 116-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:149:y:2016:i:c:p:116-119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.10.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro, 2010. "Knowledge spillovers in US patents: A dynamic patent intensity model with secret common innovation factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 14-32, November.
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    6. Hall, B. & Jaffe, A. & Trajtenberg, M., 2001. "The NBER Patent Citations Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," Papers 2001-29, Tel Aviv.
    7. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro, 2016. "Patent propensity, R&D and market competition: Dynamic spillovers of innovation leaders and followers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 145-163.
    8. Richard A. Davis, 2003. "Observation-driven models for Poisson counts," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(4), pages 777-790, December.
    9. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    10. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
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    12. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1997. "Multiplicative Panel Data Models Without the Strict Exogeneity Assumption," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 667-678, October.
    13. Richard A. Davis & William T. M. Dunsmuir & Sarah B. Streett, 2005. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Observation Driven Model for Poisson Counts," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 149-159, June.
    14. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Licht, Adrian, 2018. "Seasonal Quasi-Vector Autoregressive Models with an Application to Crude Oil Production and Economic Activity in the United States and Canada," UC3M Working papers. Economics 27484, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro, 2023. "Score-driven threshold ice-age models: Benchmark models for long-run climate forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions using score-driven threshold climate models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs, 2019. "Score-driven time series models with dynamic shape : an application to the Standard & Poor's 500 index," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28133, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    6. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Licht, Adrian, 2018. "Seasonality Detection in Small Samples using Score-Driven Nonlinear Multivariate Dynamic Location Models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 27483, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research and development; Patent count panel data; Dynamic conditional score; Quasi-maximum likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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