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Dependence of defaults and recoveries in structural credit risk models

Author

Listed:
  • Schäfer, Rudi
  • Koivusalo, Alexander F.R.

Abstract

The current research on credit risk is primarily focused on modelling default probabilities. Recovery rates are often treated as an afterthought; they are modelled independently, in many cases they are even assumed to be constant. This despite their pronounced effect on the tail of the loss distribution. Here, we take a step back, historically, and start again from the Merton model, where defaults and recoveries are both determined by an underlying process. Hence, they are intrinsically connected. For the diffusion process, we can derive the functional relation between expected recovery rate and default probability. This relation depends on a single parameter only. In Monte Carlo simulations we find that the same functional dependence also holds for jump-diffusion and GARCH processes. We discuss how to incorporate this structural recovery rate into reduced-form models, in order to restore essential structural information which is usually neglected in the reduced-form approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Schäfer, Rudi & Koivusalo, Alexander F.R., 2013. "Dependence of defaults and recoveries in structural credit risk models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-9.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.08.033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudi Schafer & Markus Sjolin & Andreas Sundin & Michal Wolanski & Thomas Guhr, 2007. "Credit risk - A structural model with jumps and correlations," Papers 0707.3478, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2007.
    2. Alexander Becker & Alexander F. R. Koivusalo & Rudi Schafer, 2012. "Empirical Evidence for the Structural Recovery Model," Papers 1203.3188, arXiv.org.
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    7. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    8. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
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    12. Schäfer, Rudi & Sjölin, Markus & Sundin, Andreas & Wolanski, Michal & Guhr, Thomas, 2007. "Credit risk—A structural model with jumps and correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(2), pages 533-569.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Loss distribution; Value at risk; Expected tail loss; Stochastic processes;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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