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Predicting the US bank failure: A discriminant analysis

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  • Raymond A.K. Cox
  • Grace W.-Y. Wang

Abstract

Using discriminant analysis, we trace the US bank failures during the period from 2007 to 2010 to poor investment decisions and large exposure to systemic risk channels. Specifically, we find that the proportion of illiquid loans in their books and the exposure to the interbank funding markets are the main predictors of bank failures. There are indicators that distinguish surviving banks from their failed peers, and these indicators serve as the early warning signals that predict banking failures. This study provides regulators and bank management forecast signals of financial exigency.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond A.K. Cox & Grace W.-Y. Wang, 2014. "Predicting the US bank failure: A discriminant analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 202-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:44:y:2014:i:2:p:202-211
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacobi, Arie & Tzur, Joseph, 2021. "Wealth distribution and probability of bank failure across countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Anastasios Petropoulos & Vasilis Siakoulis & Evangelos Stavroulakis, 2022. "Towards an early warning system for sovereign defaults leveraging on machine learning methodologies," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 118-129, April.
    3. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2019. "Optimal credit guarantee ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises’ financing: Evidence from Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 342-356.
    4. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Witkowski, Bartosz, 2022. "Regulation and supervision of the European banking industry. Does one size fit all?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 113-129.
    5. Jowita Grzelak, 2019. "Determinants of Central Eastern European Banks’ Adequacy Risk (Determinanty ryzyka adekwatnosci kapitalowej banków Europy Srodkowo-Wschodniej)," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(30), pages 20-30.
    6. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    7. Soumik Bhusan & Angshuman Hazarika & Naresh Gopal, 2022. "Time to Simplify Banking Supervision—An Evidence-Based Study on PCA Framework in India," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Petropoulos, Anastasios & Siakoulis, Vasilis & Stavroulakis, Evangelos & Vlachogiannakis, Nikolaos E., 2020. "Predicting bank insolvencies using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1092-1113.
    9. Noora Alzayed & Rasol Eskandari & Hassan Yazdifar, 2023. "Bank failure prediction: corporate governance and financial indicators," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 601-631, August.
    10. José Alejandro Fernández Fernández & Virginia Bejarano Vázquez & Juan Antonio Vicente Virseda, 2019. "Evaluación de riesgos con Data Mining: el sistema financiero español," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(3), pages 309-328, Julio - S.
    11. Prodromou, Tina & Westerholm, P. Joakim, 2022. "Are high frequency traders responsible for extreme price movements?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 94-111.
    12. Yi-Shu Wang & Xue Jiang & Zhen-Jia-Liu, 2016. "Bank Failure Prediction Models for the Developing and Developed Countries: Identifying the Economic Value Added for Predicting Failure," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(9), pages 522-533, September.
    13. Thomas Ejdemo & Daniel Örtqvist, 2021. "Exploring a leading and lagging regions dichotomy: does entrepreneurship and diversity explain it?," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, December.
    14. Fabrizio Ferriani & Wanda Cornacchia & Paolo Farroni & Eliana Ferrara & Francesco Guarino & Francesco Pisanti, 2019. "An early warning system for less significant Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 480, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    16. Cebula, Richard J. & Xu, Jiay, 2023. "A Brief Survey of Recent Studies of Bank Failures in the U.S," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(2), pages 265-274.
    17. Robin, Iftekhar & Salim, Ruhul & Bloch, Harry, 2018. "Financial performance of commercial banks in the post-reform era: Further evidence from Bangladesh," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 43-54.
    18. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:3:p:39-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    20. Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Agrapetidou, Anna, 2018. "Forecasting bank failures and stress testing: A machine learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 440-455.

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