A longitudinal study on the predictors of early grades learning attainments in low-and-middle-income countries: Evidence from Tanzania

Strands of evidence from high-income countries has consistently indicated that early learning attainments predict later learning achievements. However, less are known about these issues from low-and-middle-income countries, particularly from the sub-Saharan region. This longitudinal study examined the extent to which children’s school-entry (N = 597; mean age = 6.34 years) early reading and early math skills predicted their later learning achievement in a low-income country, Tanzania. Further, given the existing disparities of quality of educational services, families’ income, and early learning achievements, the sample included children and families from both rural and urban contexts. Data were collected using Measure of Early Learning Environments (MELE) for controlling of school quality, Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) and Early Grade Math Assessment (EGMA) for children’s tests, and parents’ questionnaire for home-related variables. Controlling for family socioeconomic status, intervention status, urbanicity settings, and parental education, findings indicated that school-entry math skills were significantly predictive of children’s end of Grade 2 reading and math achievement. However, while school-entry early reading skills predicted end of Grade 2 reading achievement, it did not predict later math achievements. This article extends research on links between elements of transition to school and later achievement across countries, thus, its implications are discussed.