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A Bayesian information criterion for portfolio selection

Author

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  • Lan, Wei
  • Wang, Hansheng
  • Tsai, Chih-Ling

Abstract

The mean-variance theory of Markowitz (1952) indicates that large investment portfolios naturally provide better risk diversification than small ones. However, due to parameter estimation errors, one may find ambiguous results in practice. Hence, it is essential to identify relevant stocks to alleviate the impact of estimation error in portfolio selection. To this end, we propose a linkage condition to link the relevant and irrelevant stock returns via their conditional regression relationship. Subsequently, we obtain a BIC selection criterion that enables us to identify relevant stocks consistently. Numerical studies indicate that BIC outperforms commonly used portfolio strategies in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Lan, Wei & Wang, Hansheng & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2012. "A Bayesian information criterion for portfolio selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 88-99, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:56:y:2012:i:1:p:88-99
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    2. William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2008. "Equity Portfolio Diversification," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, pages 433-463.
    3. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 603-621.
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    6. Alexander Kempf & Christoph Memmel, 2006. "Estimating the global Minimum Variance Portfolio," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 58(4), pages 332-348, October.
    7. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    8. Kan, Raymond & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 621-656, September.
    9. Wang, Hansheng, 2009. "Forward Regression for Ultra-High Dimensional Variable Screening," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1512-1524.
    10. Rothman, Adam J. & Levina, Elizaveta & Zhu, Ji, 2009. "Generalized Thresholding of Large Covariance Matrices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 177-186.
    11. Fan, Jianqing & Fan, Yingying & Lv, Jinchi, 2008. "High dimensional covariance matrix estimation using a factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 186-197, November.
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