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Modelling over and undercounts for design-based Monte Carlo studies in small area estimation: An application to the German register-assisted census


  • Burgard, Jan Pablo
  • Münnich, Ralf T.


In a register-assisted census, the main information about the population is obtained from population registers. Additionally, a sample is drawn to allow for the estimation of population counts for variables that are not included in the registers. Typically, registers suffer from over and undercounts. The over and undercounts are not observable from the register itself. In order to evaluate relevant estimation strategies to deal with over and undercounts, a reliable data set is to be used within a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study. This allows for comparing different estimators in a close-to-reality framework. The reliability of the data set is crucial and thus also the correct implementation of over and undercount structures. The impact of different over and undercounts modelling strategies on the prediction of the total population in considerably small regions within a register-assisted census framework is shown.

Suggested Citation

  • Burgard, Jan Pablo & Münnich, Ralf T., 2012. "Modelling over and undercounts for design-based Monte Carlo studies in small area estimation: An application to the German register-assisted census," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2856-2863.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:56:y:2012:i:10:p:2856-2863
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2010.11.002

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gonzalez-Manteiga, W. & Lombardia, M.J. & Molina, I. & Morales, D. & Santamaria, L., 2007. "Estimation of the mean squared error of predictors of small area linear parameters under a logistic mixed model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2720-2733, February.
    2. Jiming Jiang & P. Lahiri, 2006. "Mixed model prediction and small area estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 15(1), pages 1-96, June.
    3. Haining, Robert & Law, Jane & Griffith, Daniel, 2009. "Modelling small area counts in the presence of overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2923-2937, June.
    4. González-Manteiga, W. & Lombardi­a, M.J. & Molina, I. & Morales, D. & Santamari­a, L., 2008. "Analytic and bootstrap approximations of prediction errors under a multivariate Fay-Herriot model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(12), pages 5242-5252, August.
    5. Ray Chambers & Nikos Tzavidis, 2006. "M-quantile models for small area estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(2), pages 255-268, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Friedrich, Ulf & Münnich, Ralf & de Vries, Sven & Wagner, Matthias, 2015. "Fast integer-valued algorithms for optimal allocations under constraints in stratified sampling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-12.


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