IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/testjl/v25y2016i3d10.1007_s11749-015-0469-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Empirical best prediction under area-level Poisson mixed models

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Boubeta

    (Universidade da Coruña)

  • María José Lombardía

    (Universidade da Coruña)

  • Domingo Morales

    (Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche)

Abstract

The paper studies the applicability of area-level Poisson mixed models to estimate small area counting indicators. Among the available procedures for fitting generalized linear models, the method of moments (MM) and the penalised quasi-likelihood (PQL) method are employed. The empirical best predictor (EBP) of the area mean is derived using MM and compared with plug-in alternatives using MM and PQL. The plug-in estimator using PQL is computationally faster and provides competitive performance with respect to EBP that involves high complex integrals. An approximation to the mean squared error (MSE) of the EBP is given and three MSE estimators are proposed. The first two MSE estimators are plug-in estimators without and with bias correction to the second order and the third one is based on parametric bootstrap. Several simulation experiments are carried out for analysing the behaviour of the EBP and for comparing the estimators of the MSE of the EBP. A good choice in practice is the bootstrap alternative since it performs similarly to the analytical versions and is computationally faster. The developed methodology and software are applied to data from the 2008 Spanish living condition survey. The target of the application is the estimation of poverty rates at province level.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Boubeta & María José Lombardía & Domingo Morales, 2016. "Empirical best prediction under area-level Poisson mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(3), pages 548-569, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:25:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11749-015-0469-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11749-015-0469-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11749-015-0469-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11749-015-0469-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gonzalez-Manteiga, W. & Lombardia, M.J. & Molina, I. & Morales, D. & Santamaria, L., 2007. "Estimation of the mean squared error of predictors of small area linear parameters under a logistic mixed model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2720-2733, February.
    2. J.N.K. Rao, 2008. "Some Methods for Small Area Estimation," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 116(4), pages 387-405.
    3. Soumendra N. Lahiri & Tapabrata Maiti & Myron Katzoff & Van Parsons, 2007. "Resampling-based empirical prediction: an application to small area estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(2), pages 469-485.
    4. Jiming Jiang & P. Lahiri, 2006. "Mixed model prediction and small area estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 15(1), pages 1-96, June.
    5. Esther López-Vizcaíno & María José Lombardía & Domingo Morales, 2015. "Small area estimation of labour force indicators under a multinomial model with correlated time and area effects," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 535-565, June.
    6. MacNab, Ying C. & Lin, Yi, 2009. "On empirical Bayes penalized quasi-likelihood inference in GLMMs and in Bayesian disease mapping and ecological modeling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2950-2967, June.
    7. Esteban, M.D. & Morales, D. & Pérez, A. & Santamaría, L., 2012. "Small area estimation of poverty proportions under area-level time models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2840-2855.
    8. Jiming Jiang & P. Lahiri, 2001. "Empirical Best Prediction for Small Area Inference with Binary Data," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 53(2), pages 217-243, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan Pablo Burgard & María Dolores Esteban & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2020. "A Fay–Herriot model when auxiliary variables are measured with error," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(1), pages 166-195, March.
    2. Chwila Adam & Żądło Tomasz, 2020. "On the choice of the number of Monte Carlo iterations and bootstrap replicates in Empirical Best Prediction," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 35-60, June.
    3. Tomáš Hobza & Domingo Morales & Laureano Santamaría, 2018. "Small area estimation of poverty proportions under unit-level temporal binomial-logit mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(2), pages 270-294, June.
    4. Roberto Benavent & Domingo Morales, 2021. "Small area estimation under a temporal bivariate area-level linear mixed model with independent time effects," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 195-222, March.
    5. Adam Chwila & Tomasz Żądło, 2020. "On the choice of the number of Monte Carlo iterations and bootstrap replicates in Empirical Best Prediction," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 35-60, June.
    6. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2020. "Small area estimation of proportions under area-level compositional mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(3), pages 793-818, September.
    7. Jan Pablo Burgard & Joscha Krause & Ralf Münnich, 2019. "Penalized Small Area Models for the Combination of Unit- and Area-level Data," Research Papers in Economics 2019-05, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    8. Flores-Agreda, Daniel & Cantoni, Eva, 2019. "Bootstrap estimation of uncertainty in prediction for generalized linear mixed models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-17.
    9. Domingo Morales & Joscha Krause & Jan Pablo Burgard, 2022. "On the Use of Aggregate Survey Data for Estimating Regional Major Depressive Disorder Prevalence," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 344-368, March.
    10. Domingo Morales & María del Mar Rueda & Dolores Esteban, 2018. "Model-Assisted Estimation of Small Area Poverty Measures: An Application within the Valencia Region in Spain," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 873-900, August.
    11. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2023. "Small area estimation of average compositions under multivariate nested error regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 32(2), pages 651-676, June.
    12. Joscha Krause & Jan Pablo Burgard & Domingo Morales, 2022. "$$\ell _2$$ ℓ 2 -penalized approximate likelihood inference in logit mixed models for regional prevalence estimation under covariate rank-deficiency," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(4), pages 459-489, May.
    13. Boubeta, Miguel & Lombardía, María José & Morales, Domingo, 2017. "Poisson mixed models for studying the poverty in small areas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 32-47.
    14. María Bugallo & Domingo Morales & María Dolores Esteban & Maria Chiara Pagliarella, 2024. "Model-Based Estimation of Small Area Dissimilarity Indexes: An Application to Sex Occupational Segregation in Spain," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 174(2), pages 473-501, September.
    15. M. Giovanna Ranalli & Giorgio E. Montanari & Cecilia Vicarelli, 2018. "Estimation of small area counts with the benchmarking property," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 76(3), pages 349-378, December.
    16. Chandra, Hukum & Salvati, Nicola & Chambers, Ray, 2018. "Small area estimation under a spatially non-linear model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 19-38.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boubeta, Miguel & Lombardía, María José & Morales, Domingo, 2017. "Poisson mixed models for studying the poverty in small areas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 32-47.
    2. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2020. "Small area estimation of proportions under area-level compositional mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(3), pages 793-818, September.
    3. Angelo Moretti, 2023. "Estimation of small area proportions under a bivariate logistic mixed model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3663-3684, August.
    4. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López‐Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2022. "Empirical best prediction of small area bivariate parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1699-1727, December.
    5. Tomáš Hobza & Domingo Morales & Laureano Santamaría, 2018. "Small area estimation of poverty proportions under unit-level temporal binomial-logit mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(2), pages 270-294, June.
    6. Joscha Krause & Jan Pablo Burgard & Domingo Morales, 2022. "$$\ell _2$$ ℓ 2 -penalized approximate likelihood inference in logit mixed models for regional prevalence estimation under covariate rank-deficiency," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(4), pages 459-489, May.
    7. Tamura, Karin Ayumi & Giampaoli, Viviana, 2013. "New prediction method for the mixed logistic model applied in a marketing problem," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 202-216.
    8. M. Giovanna Ranalli & Giorgio E. Montanari & Cecilia Vicarelli, 2018. "Estimation of small area counts with the benchmarking property," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 76(3), pages 349-378, December.
    9. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2023. "Small area estimation of average compositions under multivariate nested error regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 32(2), pages 651-676, June.
    10. K. Shuvo Bakar & Nicholas Biddle & Philip Kokic & Huidong Jin, 2020. "A Bayesian spatial categorical model for prediction to overlapping geographical areas in sample surveys," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 535-563, February.
    11. Ralf Münnich & Jan Pablo Burgard & Siegfried Gabler & Matthias Ganninger & Jan-Philipp Kolb, 2016. "Small Area Estimation In The German Census 2011," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 25-40, March.
    12. Tomasz Ża̧dło, 2015. "On longitudinal moving average model for prediction of subpopulation total," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 749-771, August.
    13. M. D. Ugarte & A. F. Militino & T. Goicoa, 2008. "Adjusting economic estimates in business surveys," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1253-1265.
    14. J. N. K. Rao, 2015. "Inferential Issues In Model-Based Small Area Estimation: Some New Developments," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 491-510, December.
    15. Marhuenda, Yolanda & Morales, Domingo & del Carmen Pardo, María, 2014. "Information criteria for Fay–Herriot model selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 268-280.
    16. Roberto Benavent & Domingo Morales, 2021. "Small area estimation under a temporal bivariate area-level linear mixed model with independent time effects," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 195-222, March.
    17. Malay Ghosh, 2020. "Small area estimation: its evolution in five decades," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1-22, August.
    18. Chandra, Hukum & Salvati, Nicola & Chambers, Ray, 2018. "Small area estimation under a spatially non-linear model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 19-38.
    19. Hao Sun & Emily Berg & Zhengyuan Zhu, 2022. "Bivariate small‐area estimation for binary and gaussian variables based on a conditionally specified model," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 78(4), pages 1555-1565, December.
    20. Newhouse,David Locke & Merfeld,Joshua David & Ramakrishnan,Anusha Pudugramam & Swartz,Tom & Lahiri,Partha, 2022. "Small Area Estimation of Monetary Poverty in Mexico Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10175, The World Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:25:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11749-015-0469-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.