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The role of fear and public opinion in mitigating the impact of deniers during epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Zhai, Shidong
  • Tang, Yuhan
  • Ma, Jun
  • Tao, Junli

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of fear and online public opinion on the spread of epidemics in a virus model that includes both denialists and cautious individuals, using homogeneous and heterogeneous activity-driven networks (ADNs). We develop a new virus propagation model that incorporates the effects of fear and network public opinion, offering a more realistic depiction of epidemic dynamics. Using the mean-field method, we derive the epidemic threshold for homogeneous ADNs and show that both fear and public opinion raise this threshold, mitigating the impact of denialists on epidemic transmission. Extending our analysis to heterogeneous ADNs, we find that increased population heterogeneity facilitates the spread of epidemics, highlighting complex interactions in diverse populations. Numerical experiments further demonstrate that incorporating fear and public opinion helps reduce epidemic spread by lowering system heterogeneity, with fear driven by external factors proving more effective than fear induced by online public opinion or direct contact with infected individuals. These findings emphasize the importance of social and psychological factors in controlling epidemic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhai, Shidong & Tang, Yuhan & Ma, Jun & Tao, Junli, 2025. "The role of fear and public opinion in mitigating the impact of deniers during epidemics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 199(P1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:199:y:2025:i:p1:s0960077925006356
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116622
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