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Modeling secondary infections with temporary immunity and disease enhancement factor: Mechanisms for complex dynamics in simple epidemiological models

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  • Steindorf, Vanessa
  • Srivastav, Akhil Kumar
  • Stollenwerk, Nico
  • Kooi, Bob W.
  • Aguiar, Maíra

Abstract

Modeling insights for epidemiological scenarios characterized by chaotic dynamics have been largely unexplored. A rigorous analysis of such systems are essential for a real predictive power and a more accurate disease control decision making. Motivated by dengue fever epidemiology, we study a basic SIR–SIR type model for the host population, capturing differences between primary and secondary infections. This model is the minimalistic version to previously suggested multi-strain models for dengue fever in which deterministic chaos was found in wider parameter regions. Without strain structure of pathogens, we consider temporary immunity after a primary infection and disease enhancement in a subsequent infection to identify to which extent these biological mechanisms can generate complex behavior in simple epidemiological models.

Suggested Citation

  • Steindorf, Vanessa & Srivastav, Akhil Kumar & Stollenwerk, Nico & Kooi, Bob W. & Aguiar, Maíra, 2022. "Modeling secondary infections with temporary immunity and disease enhancement factor: Mechanisms for complex dynamics in simple epidemiological models," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:164:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922008888
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112709
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    1. Samir Bhatt & Peter W. Gething & Oliver J. Brady & Jane P. Messina & Andrew W. Farlow & Catherine L. Moyes & John M. Drake & John S. Brownstein & Anne G. Hoen & Osman Sankoh & Monica F. Myers & Dylan , 2013. "The global distribution and burden of dengue," Nature, Nature, vol. 496(7446), pages 504-507, April.
    2. Lewi Stone & Ronen Olinky & Amit Huppert, 2007. "Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics," Nature, Nature, vol. 446(7135), pages 533-536, March.
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    1. Srivastav, Akhil Kumar & Steindorf, Vanessa & Stollenwerk, Nico & Aguiar, Maíra, 2023. "The effects of public health measures on severe dengue cases: An optimal control approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).

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