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Comparison between ANNs and linear MCP algorithms in the long-term estimation of the cost per kWh produced by a wind turbine at a candidate site: A case study in the Canary Islands

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  • Velázquez, Sergio
  • Carta, José A.
  • Matías, J.M.

Abstract

In the work presented in this paper Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were used to estimate the long-term wind speeds at a candidate site. The specific costs of the wind energy were subsequently determined on the basis of the knowledge of these wind speeds. The results were compared with those obtained with a linear Measure–Correlate–Predict (MCP) method. The mean hourly wind speeds and directions recorded over a 10year period at six weather stations located on different islands in the Canary Archipelago (Spain) were used as a case study. The power-wind speed curves for five wind turbines of different rated power were also used. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Pearson’s correlation coefficient and the Index of Agreement (IoA) between measured and estimated data were used to evaluate the errors made with the different metrics analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Velázquez, Sergio & Carta, José A. & Matías, J.M., 2011. "Comparison between ANNs and linear MCP algorithms in the long-term estimation of the cost per kWh produced by a wind turbine at a candidate site: A case study in the Canary Islands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3869-3881.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:11:p:3869-3881
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.007
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mifsud, Michael D. & Sant, Tonio & Farrugia, Robert N., 2018. "A comparison of Measure-Correlate-Predict Methodologies using LiDAR as a candidate site measurement device for the Mediterranean Island of Malta," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 947-959.
    4. Carta, José A. & Velázquez, Sergio & Cabrera, Pedro, 2013. "A review of measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methods used to estimate long-term wind characteristics at a target site," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 362-400.
    5. Lo Zupone, Giacomo & Amelio, Mario & Barbarelli, Silvio & Florio, Gaetano & Scornaienchi, Nino Michele & Cutrupi, Antonino, 2017. "Lcoe evaluation for a tidal kinetic self balancing turbine: Case study and comparison," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1292-1302.
    6. Weekes, S.M. & Tomlin, A.S., 2014. "Comparison between the bivariate Weibull probability approach and linear regression for assessment of the long-term wind energy resource using MCP," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 529-539.
    7. Weekes, S.M. & Tomlin, A.S. & Vosper, S.B. & Skea, A.K. & Gallani, M.L. & Standen, J.J., 2015. "Long-term wind resource assessment for small and medium-scale turbines using operational forecast data and measure–correlate–predict," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 760-769.
    8. Joseph, Lionel P. & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Prasad, Ramendra & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho & Raj, Nawin & Soar, Jeffrey, 2023. "Near real-time wind speed forecast model with bidirectional LSTM networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 39-58.
    9. Woochul Nam & Ki-Yong Oh, 2020. "Mutually Complementary Measure-Correlate-Predict Method for Enhanced Long-Term Wind-Resource Assessment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-20, October.
    10. Xiao Liu & Xu Lai & Jin Zou, 2017. "A New MCP Method of Wind Speed Temporal Interpolation and Extrapolation Considering Wind Speed Mixed Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali & Samadianfard, Saeed & Maraseni, Tek & Bilgili, Mehmet & Biazar, Mustafa, 2018. "Multi-layer perceptron hybrid model integrated with the firefly optimizer algorithm for windspeed prediction of target site using a limited set of neighboring reference station data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 309-323.
    12. Dinler, Ali, 2013. "A new low-correlation MCP (measure-correlate-predict) method for wind energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 152-160.
    13. Chen, Jincheng & Wang, Feng & Stelson, Kim A., 2018. "A mathematical approach to minimizing the cost of energy for large utility wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1413-1422.
    14. Benedetti, Miriam & Cesarotti, Vittorio & Introna, Vito & Serranti, Jacopo, 2016. "Energy consumption control automation using Artificial Neural Networks and adaptive algorithms: Proposal of a new methodology and case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 60-71.
    15. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    16. Zhang, Jie & Draxl, Caroline & Hopson, Thomas & Monache, Luca Delle & Vanvyve, Emilie & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2015. "Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 528-541.
    17. Dong, Xinghui & Li, Jia & Gao, Di & Zheng, Kai, 2020. "Wind speed modeling for cascade clusters of wind turbines part 1: The cascade clusters of wind turbines," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    18. Tang, Xiao-Yu & Zhao, Shumian & Fan, Bo & Peinke, Joachim & Stoevesandt, Bernhard, 2019. "Micro-scale wind resource assessment in complex terrain based on CFD coupled measurement from multiple masts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 806-815.
    19. Wen-Ko Hsu & Chung-Kee Yeh, 2021. "Offshore Wind Potential of West Central Taiwan: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    20. José V. P. Miguel & Eliane A. Fadigas & Ildo L. Sauer, 2019. "The Influence of the Wind Measurement Campaign Duration on a Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP)-Based Wind Resource Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    21. Koo, Junmo & Han, Gwon Deok & Choi, Hyung Jong & Shim, Joon Hyung, 2015. "Wind-speed prediction and analysis based on geological and distance variables using an artificial neural network: A case study in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1296-1302.
    22. Díaz, Santiago & Carta, José A. & Matías, José M., 2018. "Performance assessment of five MCP models proposed for the estimation of long-term wind turbine power outputs at a target site using three machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 455-477.
    23. Troncoso, A. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Casanova-Mateo, C. & Riquelme, J.C. & Prieto, L., 2015. "Local models-based regression trees for very short-term wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 589-598.
    24. Weekes, S.M. & Tomlin, A.S., 2014. "Data efficient measure-correlate-predict approaches to wind resource assessment for small-scale wind energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 162-171.
    25. Kang, Dongbum & Ko, Kyungnam & Huh, Jongchul, 2015. "Determination of extreme wind values using the Gumbel distribution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 51-58.

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