IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v88y2011i11p3869-3881.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison between ANNs and linear MCP algorithms in the long-term estimation of the cost per kWh produced by a wind turbine at a candidate site: A case study in the Canary Islands

Author

Listed:
  • Velázquez, Sergio
  • Carta, José A.
  • Matías, J.M.

Abstract

In the work presented in this paper Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were used to estimate the long-term wind speeds at a candidate site. The specific costs of the wind energy were subsequently determined on the basis of the knowledge of these wind speeds. The results were compared with those obtained with a linear Measure–Correlate–Predict (MCP) method. The mean hourly wind speeds and directions recorded over a 10year period at six weather stations located on different islands in the Canary Archipelago (Spain) were used as a case study. The power-wind speed curves for five wind turbines of different rated power were also used. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Pearson’s correlation coefficient and the Index of Agreement (IoA) between measured and estimated data were used to evaluate the errors made with the different metrics analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Velázquez, Sergio & Carta, José A. & Matías, J.M., 2011. "Comparison between ANNs and linear MCP algorithms in the long-term estimation of the cost per kWh produced by a wind turbine at a candidate site: A case study in the Canary Islands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3869-3881.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:11:p:3869-3881
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911002984
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calero, R. & Carta, J. A., 2004. "Action plan for wind energy development in the Canary Islands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1185-1197, July.
    2. Carta, José A. & Velázquez, Sergio, 2011. "A new probabilistic method to estimate the long-term wind speed characteristics at a potential wind energy conversion site," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2671-2685.
    3. Fadare, D.A., 2010. "The application of artificial neural networks to mapping of wind speed profile for energy application in Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 934-942, March.
    4. Monfared, Mohammad & Rastegar, Hasan & Kojabadi, Hossein Madadi, 2009. "A new strategy for wind speed forecasting using artificial intelligent methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 845-848.
    5. López, P. & Velo, R. & Maseda, F., 2008. "Effect of direction on wind speed estimation in complex terrain using neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 2266-2272.
    6. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    7. Jose Antonio Carta and Jaime Gonzalez, 2001. "Self-Sufficient Energy Supply for Isolated Communities: Wind-Diesel Systems in the Canary Islands," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 115-146.
    8. Velázquez, Sergio & Carta, José A. & Matías, J.M., 2011. "Influence of the input layer signals of ANNs on wind power estimation for a target site: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 1556-1566, April.
    9. Bilgili, Mehmet & Sahin, Besir & Yasar, Abdulkadir, 2007. "Application of artificial neural networks for the wind speed prediction of target station using reference stations data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(14), pages 2350-2360.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carta, José A. & Cabrera, Pedro & Matías, José M. & Castellano, Fernando, 2015. "Comparison of feature selection methods using ANNs in MCP-wind speed methods. A case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 490-507.
    2. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Şahin, Mehmet & Adamowski, Jan F. & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Universally deployable extreme learning machines integrated with remotely sensed MODIS satellite predictors over Australia to forecast global solar radiation: A new approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 235-261.
    3. Mifsud, Michael D. & Sant, Tonio & Farrugia, Robert N., 2018. "A comparison of Measure-Correlate-Predict Methodologies using LiDAR as a candidate site measurement device for the Mediterranean Island of Malta," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 947-959.
    4. Carta, José A. & Velázquez, Sergio & Cabrera, Pedro, 2013. "A review of measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methods used to estimate long-term wind characteristics at a target site," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 362-400.
    5. Lo Zupone, Giacomo & Amelio, Mario & Barbarelli, Silvio & Florio, Gaetano & Scornaienchi, Nino Michele & Cutrupi, Antonino, 2017. "Lcoe evaluation for a tidal kinetic self balancing turbine: Case study and comparison," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1292-1302.
    6. Weekes, S.M. & Tomlin, A.S., 2014. "Comparison between the bivariate Weibull probability approach and linear regression for assessment of the long-term wind energy resource using MCP," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 529-539.
    7. Weekes, S.M. & Tomlin, A.S. & Vosper, S.B. & Skea, A.K. & Gallani, M.L. & Standen, J.J., 2015. "Long-term wind resource assessment for small and medium-scale turbines using operational forecast data and measure–correlate–predict," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 760-769.
    8. Joseph, Lionel P. & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Prasad, Ramendra & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho & Raj, Nawin & Soar, Jeffrey, 2023. "Near real-time wind speed forecast model with bidirectional LSTM networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 39-58.
    9. Woochul Nam & Ki-Yong Oh, 2020. "Mutually Complementary Measure-Correlate-Predict Method for Enhanced Long-Term Wind-Resource Assessment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-20, October.
    10. Xiao Liu & Xu Lai & Jin Zou, 2017. "A New MCP Method of Wind Speed Temporal Interpolation and Extrapolation Considering Wind Speed Mixed Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali & Samadianfard, Saeed & Maraseni, Tek & Bilgili, Mehmet & Biazar, Mustafa, 2018. "Multi-layer perceptron hybrid model integrated with the firefly optimizer algorithm for windspeed prediction of target site using a limited set of neighboring reference station data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 309-323.
    12. Dinler, Ali, 2013. "A new low-correlation MCP (measure-correlate-predict) method for wind energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 152-160.
    13. Chen, Jincheng & Wang, Feng & Stelson, Kim A., 2018. "A mathematical approach to minimizing the cost of energy for large utility wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1413-1422.
    14. Benedetti, Miriam & Cesarotti, Vittorio & Introna, Vito & Serranti, Jacopo, 2016. "Energy consumption control automation using Artificial Neural Networks and adaptive algorithms: Proposal of a new methodology and case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 60-71.
    15. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    16. Zhang, Jie & Draxl, Caroline & Hopson, Thomas & Monache, Luca Delle & Vanvyve, Emilie & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2015. "Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 528-541.
    17. Dong, Xinghui & Li, Jia & Gao, Di & Zheng, Kai, 2020. "Wind speed modeling for cascade clusters of wind turbines part 1: The cascade clusters of wind turbines," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    18. Tang, Xiao-Yu & Zhao, Shumian & Fan, Bo & Peinke, Joachim & Stoevesandt, Bernhard, 2019. "Micro-scale wind resource assessment in complex terrain based on CFD coupled measurement from multiple masts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 806-815.
    19. Wen-Ko Hsu & Chung-Kee Yeh, 2021. "Offshore Wind Potential of West Central Taiwan: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    20. José V. P. Miguel & Eliane A. Fadigas & Ildo L. Sauer, 2019. "The Influence of the Wind Measurement Campaign Duration on a Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP)-Based Wind Resource Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    21. Koo, Junmo & Han, Gwon Deok & Choi, Hyung Jong & Shim, Joon Hyung, 2015. "Wind-speed prediction and analysis based on geological and distance variables using an artificial neural network: A case study in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1296-1302.
    22. Díaz, Santiago & Carta, José A. & Matías, José M., 2018. "Performance assessment of five MCP models proposed for the estimation of long-term wind turbine power outputs at a target site using three machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 455-477.
    23. Troncoso, A. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Casanova-Mateo, C. & Riquelme, J.C. & Prieto, L., 2015. "Local models-based regression trees for very short-term wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 589-598.
    24. Weekes, S.M. & Tomlin, A.S., 2014. "Data efficient measure-correlate-predict approaches to wind resource assessment for small-scale wind energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 162-171.
    25. Kang, Dongbum & Ko, Kyungnam & Huh, Jongchul, 2015. "Determination of extreme wind values using the Gumbel distribution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 51-58.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carta, José A. & Velázquez, Sergio & Cabrera, Pedro, 2013. "A review of measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methods used to estimate long-term wind characteristics at a target site," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 362-400.
    2. Carta, José A. & Cabrera, Pedro & Matías, José M. & Castellano, Fernando, 2015. "Comparison of feature selection methods using ANNs in MCP-wind speed methods. A case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 490-507.
    3. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    4. Velázquez, Sergio & Carta, José A. & Matías, J.M., 2011. "Influence of the input layer signals of ANNs on wind power estimation for a target site: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 1556-1566, April.
    5. Dinler, Ali, 2013. "A new low-correlation MCP (measure-correlate-predict) method for wind energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 152-160.
    6. Jung, Sungmoon & Kwon, Soon-Duck, 2013. "Weighted error functions in artificial neural networks for improved wind energy potential estimation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 778-790.
    7. Mifsud, Michael D. & Sant, Tonio & Farrugia, Robert N., 2018. "A comparison of Measure-Correlate-Predict Methodologies using LiDAR as a candidate site measurement device for the Mediterranean Island of Malta," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 947-959.
    8. Troncoso, A. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Casanova-Mateo, C. & Riquelme, J.C. & Prieto, L., 2015. "Local models-based regression trees for very short-term wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 589-598.
    9. Chen, Kuilin & Yu, Jie, 2014. "Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 690-705.
    10. Weekes, S.M. & Tomlin, A.S., 2014. "Comparison between the bivariate Weibull probability approach and linear regression for assessment of the long-term wind energy resource using MCP," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 529-539.
    11. Ramasamy, P. & Chandel, S.S. & Yadav, Amit Kumar, 2015. "Wind speed prediction in the mountainous region of India using an artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 338-347.
    12. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Guowei, 2013. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied to wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 185-194.
    13. Koo, Junmo & Han, Gwon Deok & Choi, Hyung Jong & Shim, Joon Hyung, 2015. "Wind-speed prediction and analysis based on geological and distance variables using an artificial neural network: A case study in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1296-1302.
    14. Bueno, C. & Carta, J.A., 2006. "Wind powered pumped hydro storage systems, a means of increasing the penetration of renewable energy in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 312-340, August.
    15. Alonzo, Bastien & Ringkjob, Hans-Kristian & Jourdier, Benedicte & Drobinski, Philippe & Plougonven, Riwal & Tankov, Peter, 2017. "Modelling the variability of the wind energy resource on monthly and seasonal timescales," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1434-1446.
    16. Zhang, Wenyu & Wu, Jie & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Shen, Lin, 2012. "Performance analysis of four modified approaches for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 324-333.
    17. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    18. Oluseyi O. Ajayi & Richard O. Fagbenle & James Katende & Julius M. Ndambuki & David O. Omole & Adekunle A. Badejo, 2014. "Wind Energy Study and Energy Cost of Wind Electricity Generation in Nigeria: Past and Recent Results and a Case Study for South West Nigeria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-27, December.
    19. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2010. "On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2313-2320, July.
    20. Manoj Verma & Harish Kumar Ghritlahre & Ghrithanchi Chandrakar, 2023. "Wind Speed Prediction of Central Region of Chhattisgarh (India) Using Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression Technique: A Comparative Study," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 851-873, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:11:p:3869-3881. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.