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A new spinning reserve requirement forecast method for deregulated electricity markets

Listed author(s):
  • Amjady, Nima
  • Keynia, Farshid
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    Ancillary services are necessary for maintaining the security and reliability of power systems and constitute an important part of trade in competitive electricity markets. Spinning Reserve (SR) is one of the most important ancillary services for saving power system stability and integrity in response to contingencies and disturbances that continuously occur in the power systems. Hence, an accurate day-ahead forecast of SR requirement helps the Independent System Operator (ISO) to conduct a reliable and economic operation of the power system. However, SR signal has complex, non-stationary and volatile behavior along the time domain and depends greatly on system load. In this paper, a new hybrid forecast engine is proposed for SR requirement prediction. The proposed forecast engine has an iterative training mechanism composed of Levenberg-Marquadt (LM) learning algorithm and Real Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA), implemented on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. The proposed forecast methodology is examined by means of real data of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market and the California ISO (CAISO) controlled grid. The obtained forecast results are presented and compared with those of the other SR forecast methods.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 87 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1870-1879

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:6:p:1870-1879
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    1. Georgopoulou, Chariklia A. & Giannakoglou, Kyriakos C., 2009. "Two-level, two-objective evolutionary algorithms for solving unit commitment problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(7-8), pages 1229-1239, July.
    2. Diongue, Abdou Kâ & Guégan, Dominique & Vignal, Bertrand, 2009. "Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 505-510, April.
    3. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00307606 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Amjady, N. & Keynia, F., 2009. "Short-term load forecasting of power systems by combination of wavelet transform and neuro-evolutionary algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 46-57.
    5. Pinson, P. & Nielsen, H.Aa. & Madsen, H. & Kariniotakis, G., 2009. "Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(7-8), pages 1326-1334, July.
    6. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 480-495, April.
    7. Aghaei, J. & Shayanfar, H.A. & Amjady, N., 2009. "Joint market clearing in a stochastic framework considering power system security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(9), pages 1675-1682, September.
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