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Risk-informed resilience planning of transmission systems against ice storms

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  • Hu, Chenxi
  • Li, Yujia
  • Hou, Yunhe

Abstract

Ice storms, known for their severity and predictability, necessitate proactive resilience enhancement in power systems. Traditional approaches often overlook the endogenous uncertainties inherent in human decisions and underutilize predictive information like forecast accuracy and preparation time. To bridge these gaps, we proposed a two-stage risk-informed decision-dependent resilience planning (RIDDRP) model for transmission systems against ice storms. The model leverages predictive information to optimize resource allocation, considering decision-dependent line failure uncertainties introduced by planning decisions and exogenous ice storm-related uncertainties. We adopt a dual-objective approach to balance economic efficiency and system resilience across both normal and emergent conditions. The first stage of the RIDDIP model makes line hardening decisions, as well as the optimal siting and sizing of energy storage. The second stage evaluates the risk-informed operation costs, considering both pre-event preparation and emergency operations. Case studies demonstrate the model’s ability to leverage predictive information, leading to more judicious investment decisions and optimized utilization of dispatchable resources. We also quantified the impact of different properties of predictive information on resilience enhancement. The RIDDRP model provides grid operators and planners with valuable insights for making risk-informed infrastructure investments and operational strategy decisions, thereby improving preparedness and response to future extreme weather events.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Chenxi & Li, Yujia & Hou, Yunhe, 2025. "Risk-informed resilience planning of transmission systems against ice storms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:392:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925005318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125801
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen Rose & Paulina Jaramillo & Mitchell J. Small & Jay Apt, 2013. "Quantifying the Hurricane Catastrophe Risk to Offshore Wind Power," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(12), pages 2126-2141, December.
    2. Jiazheng Lu & Jun Guo & Zhou Jian & Yihao Yang & Wenhu Tang, 2018. "Resilience Assessment and Its Enhancement in Tackling Adverse Impact of Ice Disasters for Power Transmission Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, August.
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