IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/apmaco/v491y2025ics0096300324006751.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Influence of social peers on vaccine hesitancy under imperfect vaccination

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Yikang
  • de Miguel-Arribas, Alfonso
  • Shi, Lei

Abstract

Understanding human responses to epidemic outbreaks—particularly to control measures such as vaccination—is essential for accurately modeling the complex interplay between epidemics and human behavior. Through the framework of evolutionary vaccination games, we explore how individuals' opinions influence vaccine uptake attitudes under imperfect vaccination and, in turn, how this affects to the spread of an epidemic. In our model, individuals update their vaccination strategies by comparing their payoff with one of their neighbors. Individuals payoffs have two contributions regulated by the conformity parameter α. When α→0, the payoff is based on a classical assessment of relative vaccine-to-disease costs Cr, whereas as α→1, individuals have their payoffs influenced by the assortativeness of peers' opinions on the vaccine. The epidemic stage is described by the susceptible-infected-recovery (SIR) model. Extensive simulations have shown that on homogeneous systems, a small region in the parameter space (α,Cr) emerges where the vaccination dilemma can be totally overcome. However, it is also found that social influence tends to promote vaccine hesitancy except for small Cr. Abrupt phase transitions are observed leading the system from high vaccination coverage to full vaccine hesitancy. On heterogeneous networks, the vaccination dilemma has not only been overcome to some extent, but has also demonstrated bi-stability in specific regions. Our results demonstrate the significant impact of social influence on vaccination.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Yikang & de Miguel-Arribas, Alfonso & Shi, Lei, 2025. "Influence of social peers on vaccine hesitancy under imperfect vaccination," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:491:y:2025:i:c:s0096300324006751
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2024.129214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300324006751
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.amc.2024.129214?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    2. A. Szolnoki & M. Perc & G. Szabó, 2008. "Diversity of reproduction rate supports cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma game on complex networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 505-509, February.
    3. repec:plo:pcbi00:1002469 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Romer, Daniel & Jamieson, Kathleen Hall, 2020. "Conspiracy theories as barriers to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    5. Lu, Yikang & Geng, Yini & Gan, Wen & Shi, Lei, 2019. "Impacts of conformist on vaccination campaign in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 526(C).
    6. Zhang, Yan, 2013. "The impact of other-regarding tendencies on the spatial vaccination game," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 209-215.
    7. Amory Martin & Maryia Markhvida & Stéphane Hallegatte & Brian Walsh, 2020. "Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Household Consumption and Poverty," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 453-479, October.
    8. repec:plo:pone00:0017713 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jorgen W. Weibull, 1997. "Evolutionary Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262731215, December.
    10. Lesley Chiou & Catherine Tucker, 2018. "Fake News and Advertising on Social Media: A Study of the Anti-Vaccination Movement," NBER Working Papers 25223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Han, Dun & Sun, Mei, 2014. "Can memory and conformism resolve the vaccination dilemma?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 95-104.
    12. Neil F. Johnson & Nicolas Velásquez & Nicholas Johnson Restrepo & Rhys Leahy & Nicholas Gabriel & Sara El Oud & Minzhang Zheng & Pedro Manrique & Stefan Wuchty & Yonatan Lupu, 2020. "The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7811), pages 230-233, June.
    13. repec:fth:iniesr:487 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hhs:iuiwop:487 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:plo:pone00:0060373 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kabir, KM Ariful & Kuga, Kazuki & Tanimoto, Jun, 2020. "The impact of information spreading on epidemic vaccination game dynamics in a heterogeneous complex network- A theoretical approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Iwamura, Yoshiro & Tanimoto, Jun, 2018. "Realistic decision-making processes in a vaccination game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 494(C), pages 236-241.
    18. repec:plo:pone00:0208601 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Dabo Guan & Daoping Wang & Stephane Hallegatte & Steven J. Davis & Jingwen Huo & Shuping Li & Yangchun Bai & Tianyang Lei & Qianyu Xue & D’Maris Coffman & Danyang Cheng & Peipei Chen & Xi Liang & Bing, 2020. "Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 577-587, June.
    20. Fukuda, Eriko & Kokubo, Satoshi & Tanimoto, Jun & Wang, Zhen & Hagishima, Aya & Ikegaya, Naoki, 2014. "Risk assessment for infectious disease and its impact on voluntary vaccination behavior in social networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-9.
    21. Jill E. Hobbs, 2020. "Food supply chains during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 171-176, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kulsum, Umma & Alam, Muntasir & Kamrujjaman, Md., 2024. "Modeling and investigating the dilemma of early and delayed vaccination driven by the dynamics of imitation and aspiration," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Cui, Guang-Hai & Wang, Zhen & Li, Jun-Li & Jin, Xing & Zhang, Zhi-Wang, 2021. "Influence of precaution and dynamic post-indemnity based insurance policy on controlling the propagation of epidemic security risks in networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    3. Wang, Jianwei & He, Jialu & Yu, Fengyuan & Guo, Yuxin & Li, Meiyu & Chen, Wei, 2020. "Realistic decision-making process with memory and adaptability in evolutionary vaccination game," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Alam, Muntasir & Tanaka, Masaki & Tanimoto, Jun, 2019. "A game theoretic approach to discuss the positive secondary effect of vaccination scheme in an infinite and well-mixed population," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 201-213.
    5. Kabir, K.M. Ariful, 2021. "How evolutionary game could solve the human vaccine dilemma," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Alam, Muntasir & Ida, Yuki & Tanimoto, Jun, 2021. "Abrupt epidemic outbreak could be well tackled by multiple pre-emptive provisions-A game approach considering structured and unstructured populations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Soya Miyoshi & Marko Jusup & Petter Holme, 2021. "Flexible imitation suppresses epidemics through better vaccination," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 709-720, November.
    8. Cui, Guang-Hai & Li, Jun-Li & Dong, Kun-Xiang & Jin, Xing & Yang, Hong-Yong & Wang, Zhen, 2024. "Influence of subsidy policies against insurances on controlling the propagation of epidemic security risks in networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    9. Ichinose, Genki & Kurisaku, Takehiro, 2017. "Positive and negative effects of social impact on evolutionary vaccination game in networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 84-90.
    10. Meng, Xueyu & Lin, Jianhong & Fan, Yufei & Gao, Fujuan & Fenoaltea, Enrico Maria & Cai, Zhiqiang & Si, Shubin, 2023. "Coupled disease-vaccination behavior dynamic analysis and its application in COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    11. Pedro H. T. Schimit & Abimael R. Sergio & Marco A. R. Fontoura, 2025. "Vaccination as a Game: Behavioural Dynamics, Network Effects, and Policy Levers—A Comprehensive Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    12. Wang, Qingqing & Du, Chunpeng & Geng, Yini & Shi, Lei, 2020. "Historical payoff can not overcome the vaccination dilemma on Barabási–Albert scale-free networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Kabir, K.M. Ariful & Tanimoto, Jun, 2019. "Dynamical behaviors for vaccination can suppress infectious disease – A game theoretical approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 229-239.
    14. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    16. Kabir, K.M. Ariful & Tanimoto, Jun, 2021. "The role of pairwise nonlinear evolutionary dynamics in the rock–paper–scissors game with noise," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 394(C).
    17. Michal Hrivnák & Peter Moritz & Marcela Chreneková, 2021. "What Kept the Boat Afloat? Sustainability of Employment in Knowledge-Intensive Sectors Due to Government Measures during COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-21, July.
    18. Kabir, K.M. Ariful & Kuga, Kazuki & Tanimoto, Jun, 2019. "Effect of information spreading to suppress the disease contagion on the epidemic vaccination game," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 180-187.
    19. Wang, Jianwei & Xu, Wenshu & Chen, Wei & Yu, Fengyuan & He, Jialu, 2021. "Information sharing can suppress the spread of epidemics: Voluntary vaccination game on two-layer networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 583(C).
    20. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:491:y:2025:i:c:s0096300324006751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/applied-mathematics-and-computation .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.