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The effect of reinfection with the same serotype on dengue transmission dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Anggriani, N.
  • Tasman, H.
  • Ndii, M.Z.
  • Supriatna, A.K.
  • Soewono, E.
  • Siregar, E

Abstract

Dengue is worldwide problem with around 390 million cases annually. Dengue is caused by four dengue serotypes: DEN1, DEN2, DEN3, DEN4. Individuals obtain lifelong immunity to the serotype they are infected with. This becomes the main underlying assumptions of most modeling work on dengue. However, data from West Java, Indonesia, showed that there is a possibility for individuals to be reinfected by the same strain, which may result in significantly different dengue transmission dynamics. In this paper, we develop a novel multi-strain dengue model taking into account the reinfection with the same dengue serotype. We examine the effects of reinfection with the same serotype, study symmetric epidemiological characteristics and investigate the effects of antibody-dependent enhancement on dengue transmission dynamics by using a mathematical model. We analyse the stability of the model and perform global sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential parameters. We found that the model has four equilibrium points: disease-free, two partially endemic and coexistence equilibria. We also presented two Basic Reproductive Ratio Ri associated with the first and the second strain of the viruses. The stability of the model is determined by the condition of basic reproductive ratio. We found that when the degree of immunity to the same strain, κ, is between zero and one, the existence of endemic equilibrium is determined by κℜi, where ℜi is the basic reproductive ratio. Furthermore, we found that reinfection with the same serotype contributes an increase in the number of primary and secondary dengue cases. The results suggest that it is likely that reinfection with the same serotype may be one of the underlying factors causing an increase in the number of secondary infection.

Suggested Citation

  • Anggriani, N. & Tasman, H. & Ndii, M.Z. & Supriatna, A.K. & Soewono, E. & Siregar, E, 2019. "The effect of reinfection with the same serotype on dengue transmission dynamics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 349(C), pages 62-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:349:y:2019:i:c:p:62-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2018.12.022
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    1. Samir Bhatt & Peter W. Gething & Oliver J. Brady & Jane P. Messina & Andrew W. Farlow & Catherine L. Moyes & John M. Drake & John S. Brownstein & Anne G. Hoen & Osman Sankoh & Monica F. Myers & Dylan , 2013. "The global distribution and burden of dengue," Nature, Nature, vol. 496(7446), pages 504-507, April.
    2. Ndii, Meksianis Z. & Allingham, David & Hickson, R.I. & Glass, Kathryn, 2016. "The effect of Wolbachia on dengue outbreaks when dengue is repeatedly introduced," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 9-15.
    3. Gerhart Knerer & Christine Currie & Sally Brailsford, 2015. "Impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies on transmission dynamics of dengue fever: a model-based analysis," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 205-217, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abidemi, A. & Abd Aziz, M.I. & Ahmad, R., 2020. "Vaccination and vector control effect on dengue virus transmission dynamics: Modelling and simulation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Xue, Ling & Zhang, Hongyu & Sun, Wei & Scoglio, Caterina, 2021. "Transmission dynamics of multi-strain dengue virus with cross-immunity," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).

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