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Assessment of water demand reliability using SWAT and RIBASIM models with respect to climate change and operational water projects

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  • Ahmadzadeh, Hojat
  • Mansouri, Bahareh
  • Fathian, Farshad
  • Vaheddoost, Babak

Abstract

Reliability assessment in the allocation of water resources under the changing climate condition has invaluable importance in planning the water demand at the basin scale. This study details an integrated framework for evaluation of the reliability between water supply and demand under climate change scenarios in the Zarrineh Rood River basin in the northwest of Iran. Initially, recorded climatic data in six synoptic stations are downscaled and projected for the period 2020–2040 based on the 14 GCMs using the LARS-WG method. Afterwards, the SWAT model is used to simulate the basin hydrology with consideration to the baseline and future climate periods at six hydrometric stations. Finally, the available water is allocated using the RIBASIM model based on the current supply-demand chain and predefined governmental water allocation rules for different sectors. Results showed that under climate change, the total runoff of the basin and the entrance catchments to the Zarrineh Rood River dam would decrease about 8% and 28%, respectively. The reliability of the water supply for joint drinking-industrial and agricultural demands would also decrease from 96.4% to 93.4%, and 90.2–89.5%, respectively. As such, the average annual streamflow from the Zarrineh Rood River ending to Lake Urmia will reduce by 10% if the operational water projects remain active.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmadzadeh, Hojat & Mansouri, Bahareh & Fathian, Farshad & Vaheddoost, Babak, 2022. "Assessment of water demand reliability using SWAT and RIBASIM models with respect to climate change and operational water projects," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:261:y:2022:i:c:s0378377421006545
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dittrich, Ruth & Wreford, Anita & Moran, Dominic, 2016. "A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: Are robust methods the way forward?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 79-89.
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    3. Ahmadzadeh, Hojat & Morid, Saeed & Delavar, Majid & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2016. "Using the SWAT model to assess the impacts of changing irrigation from surface to pressurized systems on water productivity and water saving in the Zarrineh Rud catchment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 15-28.
    4. Shrestha, Sangam & Bach, Tran Viet & Pandey, Vishnu Prasad, 2016. "Climate change impacts on groundwater resources in Mekong Delta under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
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    2. Zhang, Y.F. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Zhai, X.B. & Ma, Y., 2024. "Improving efficiency and sustainability of water-agriculture-energy nexus in a transboundary river basin under climate change: A double-sided stochastic factional optimization method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    3. Boran Zhu & Junqiang Lin & Yi Liu & Di Zhang & Qidong Peng & Yufeng Ren & Jiejie Chen & Yi Xu, 2024. "Multi-Risk Interaction Analysis of Cascade Hydropower Stations Based on System Dynamics Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 45-62, January.

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