IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v164y2018icp236-251.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transformative and systemic climate change adaptations in mixed crop-livestock farming systems

Author

Listed:
  • Ghahramani, Afshin
  • Bowran, David

Abstract

Mixed crop-livestock farming systems provide food for more than half of the world's population. These agricultural systems are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change and therefore require transformative adaptations. In collaboration with farmers in the wheatbelt of Western Australia (WA), a range of systemic and transformative adaptation options, e.g. land use change, were designed for the modelled climate change projected to occur in 2030 (0.4–1.4° increase in mean temperature). The effectiveness of the adaptation options was evaluated using coupled crop and livestock biophysical models within an economic and environmental framework at both the enterprise and farm scales. The relative changes in economic return and environmental variables in 2030 are presented in comparison with a baseline period (1970–2010). The analysis was performed on representative farm systems across a rainfall transect. Under the impact of projected climate change, the economic returns of the current farms without adaptation declined by between 2 and 47%, with a few exceptions where profit increased by up to 4%. When the adaptations were applied for 2030, profit increased at the high rainfall site in the range between 78 and 81% through a 25% increase in the size of livestock enterprise and adjustment in sowing dates, but such profit increases were associated with 6–10% increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the medium rainfall site, a 100% increase in stocking rate resulted in 5% growth in profit but with a 61–71% increase in GHG emissions and the increased likelihood of soil degradation. At the relatively low rainfall site, a 75% increase in livestock when associated with changes in crop management resulted in greater profitability and a smaller risk of soil erosion. This research identified that a shift toward a greater livestock enterprises (stocking rate and pasture area) could be a profitable and low-risk approach and may have most relevance in years with extremely low rainfall. If transformative adaptations are adopted then there will be an increased requirement for an emissions control policy due to livestock GHG emissions, while there would be also need for soil conservation strategies to be implemented during dry periods. The adoption rate analysis with producers suggests there would be a greater adoption rate for less intensified adaptations even if they are transformative. Overall the current systems would be more resilient with the adaptations, but there may be challenges in terms of environmental sustainability and in particular with soil conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghahramani, Afshin & Bowran, David, 2018. "Transformative and systemic climate change adaptations in mixed crop-livestock farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 236-251.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:164:y:2018:i:c:p:236-251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.04.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X17311022
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.04.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Donnelly, J. R. & Freer, M. & Salmon, L. & Moore, A. D. & Simpson, R. J. & Dove, H. & Bolger, T. P., 2002. "Evolution of the GRAZPLAN decision support tools and adoption by the grazing industry in temperate Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 115-139, October.
    2. Ghahramani, Afshin & Moore, Andrew D., 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 142-155.
    3. Allyson Williams & Neil White & Shahbaz Mushtaq & Geoff Cockfield & Brendan Power & Louis Kouadio, 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 183-196, March.
    4. Moore, A. D. & Donnelly, J. R. & Freer, M., 1997. "GRAZPLAN: Decision support systems for Australian grazing enterprises. III. Pasture growth and soil moisture submodels, and the GrassGro DSS," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 535-582, December.
    5. Yu Sheng & Shiji Zhao & Katarina Nossal & Dandan Zhang, 2015. "Productivity and farm size in Australian agriculture: reinvestigating the returns to scale," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(1), pages 16-38, January.
    6. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J. & Thomas, Dean T. & Young, John M., 2017. "Climate change impacts and farm-level adaptation: Economic analysis of a mixed cropping–livestock system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 99-108.
    7. Ghahramani, Afshin & Moore, Andrew D., 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: Production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 158-166.
    8. Rigolot, C. & de Voil, P. & Douxchamps, S. & Prestwidge, D. & Van Wijk, M. & Thornton, P.K. & Rodriguez, D. & Henderson, B. & Medina, D. & Herrero, M., 2017. "Interactions between intervention packages, climatic risk, climate change and food security in mixed crop–livestock systems in Burkina Faso," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 217-224.
    9. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Kai, 2024. "Agricultural adaptation to the environmental and social consequences of climate change in mixed farming systems: Evidence from North Xinjiang, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Sundstrom, Shana M. & Angeler, David G. & Allen, Craig R., 2023. "Resilience theory and coerced resilience in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    3. Biglari, Tahereh & Maleksaeidi, Hamideh & Eskandari, Farzad & Jalali, Mohammad, 2019. "Livestock insurance as a mechanism for household resilience of livestock herders to climate change: Evidence from Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Thomas Slijper & Yann de Mey & P Marijn Poortvliet & Miranda P M Meuwissen, 2022. "Quantifying the resilience of European farms using FADN," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(1), pages 121-150.
    5. Walter Leal Filho & Franziska Wolf & Stefano Moncada & Amanda Lange Salvia & Abdul-Lateef Babatunde Balogun & Constantina Skanavis & Aristea Kounani & Patrick D. Nunn, 2022. "Transformative adaptation as a sustainable response to climate change: insights from large-scale case studies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-26, March.
    6. Ghahramani, Afshin & Kingwell, Ross S. & Maraseni, Tek Narayan, 2020. "Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Julio C. Vargas-Burgos & Marco Heredia-R & Yenny Torres & Laura Puhl & Biviana N. Heredia & Jhenny Cayambe & Julio Hernán-González & Alexandra Torres & Marcelo Luna & Theofilos Toulkeridis & Bolier To, 2023. "Livelihoods and Perceptions of Climate Change among Dairy Farmers in the Andes: Implications for Climate Education," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, September.
    8. Neal Hughes & Michael Lu & Wei Ying Soh & Kenton Lawson, 2022. "Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-22, May.
    9. Afshin Ghahramani & S. Mark Howden & Agustin del Prado & Dean T. Thomas & Andrew D. Moore & Boyu Ji & Serkan Ates, 2019. "Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation in Temperate Grazing Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-30, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghahramani, Afshin & Kingwell, Ross S. & Maraseni, Tek Narayan, 2020. "Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    2. Ghahramani, Afshin & Moore, Andrew D., 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 142-155.
    3. Afshin Ghahramani & S. Mark Howden & Agustin del Prado & Dean T. Thomas & Andrew D. Moore & Boyu Ji & Serkan Ates, 2019. "Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation in Temperate Grazing Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-30, December.
    4. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Kragt, Marit E. & Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J., 2019. "Climate change reduces the mitigation obtainable from sequestration in an Australian farming system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    5. Brown, Peter D. & Cochrane, Thomas A. & Krom, Thomas D., 2010. "Optimal on-farm irrigation scheduling with a seasonal water limit using simulated annealing," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(6), pages 892-900, June.
    6. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    7. Neal Hughes & Michael Lu & Wei Ying Soh & Kenton Lawson, 2022. "Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-22, May.
    8. Walter Leal Filho & Franziska Wolf & Stefano Moncada & Amanda Lange Salvia & Abdul-Lateef Babatunde Balogun & Constantina Skanavis & Aristea Kounani & Patrick D. Nunn, 2022. "Transformative adaptation as a sustainable response to climate change: insights from large-scale case studies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Moore, A.D. & Holzworth, D.P. & Herrmann, N.I. & Huth, N.I. & Robertson, M.J., 2007. "The Common Modelling Protocol: A hierarchical framework for simulation of agricultural and environmental systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-3), pages 37-48, December.
    10. Moore, A.D. & Robertson, M.J. & Routley, R., 2011. "Evaluation of the water use efficiency of alternative farm practices at a range of spatial and temporal scales: A conceptual framework and a modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 162-174, February.
    11. Ghahramani, Afshin & Moore, Andrew D., 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: Production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 158-166.
    12. Naomi di Santo & Ilaria Russo & Roberta Sisto, 2022. "Climate Change and Natural Resource Scarcity: A Literature Review on Dry Farming," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-25, November.
    13. Andrew P. Smith, 2022. "Biophysical Simulation of Sheep Grazing Systems Using the SGS Pasture Model," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, November.
    14. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    15. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    16. Chapman, D.F. & Kenny, S.N. & Beca, D. & Johnson, I.R., 2008. "Pasture and forage crop systems for non-irrigated dairy farms in southern Australia. 1. Physical production and economic performance," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 108-125, June.
    17. McCown, R. L., 2002. "Changing systems for supporting farmers' decisions: problems, paradigms, and prospects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 179-220, October.
    18. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    19. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    20. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:164:y:2018:i:c:p:236-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.