IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v101y2009i3p186-196.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of a mathematical model to study the impacts of production and management policies on the herd dynamics and profitability of dairy goats

Author

Listed:
  • Guimarães, Vinícius Pereira
  • Tedeschi, Luis Orlindo
  • Rodrigues, Marcelo Teixeira

Abstract

The reduction in goat milk production and the competitiveness of more profitable activities have increased the adoption of measures to enhance goat milk and meat around the world. A simulation model was built to evaluate the dynamics of a dairy goat herd under different scenarios of production. A System Dynamics approach was used to identify management policies that could affect the behaviour of the herd over 10Â years of simulation using data from a dairy goat herd in Brazil. The impact of reproductive and mortality rates, one or two annual reproductive cycles on production, and economic health of dairy goats on changes in the herd dynamics were evaluated. Simulations indicated that small changes in reproduction and mortality rates and milk price can considerably affect the dynamics of the herd as well as the financial health of the production system. The interferences created to visualize the effects were not immediately realized because of intrinsic delays in the system. The comparison of models with one or two breeding seasons indicated that the latter was considerably more profitable and had a faster turnover. It was also found that the two breeding season had a greater capacity to support reduction in milk price that could generate financial instability in the production system. It was concluded that mathematical models can be used to predict impacts in management policies on herd dynamics and sensitivity to support the dairy goat activity showing its viability as an agricultural activity that can contribute to the production and incomes in small farms.

Suggested Citation

  • Guimarães, Vinícius Pereira & Tedeschi, Luis Orlindo & Rodrigues, Marcelo Teixeira, 2009. "Development of a mathematical model to study the impacts of production and management policies on the herd dynamics and profitability of dairy goats," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 186-196, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:101:y:2009:i:3:p:186-196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308-521X(09)00066-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loyland, Knut & Ringstad, Vidar, 2000. "Gains and structural effects of exploiting scale-economies in Norwegian dairy production," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 149-166, January.
    2. Bosman, H. G. & Ayantunde, A. A. & Steenstra, F. A. & Udo, H. M. J., 1997. "A simulation model to assess productivity of goat production in the tropics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 539-576, August.
    3. Angirasa, Aditi K. & Shumway, C. Richard & Cartwright, T. C., 1985. "Simulating differences in net returns from beef production under alternative forage systems and management practices," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 99-116.
    4. Singh, Devindar, 1986. "Simulation of swine herd population dynamics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 157-183.
    5. Gartner, J. A. & Hallam, D., 1984. "A quantitative framework for livestock development planning: Part 3--Feed demand and supply," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 123-142.
    6. Upton, Martin, 1993. "Livestock productivity assessment and modelling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 459-472.
    7. van Kooten, G. Cornelis & Bulte, Erwin H. & Kinyua, Patrick, 1997. "Game cropping and wildlife conservation in Kenya: A dynamic simulation model with adaptive control," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 439-462, August.
    8. M. Tichit & B. Hubert & L. Doyen & Didier Genin, 2004. "A viability model to assess the sustainability of mixed herds under climatic uncertainty," Post-Print hal-00716790, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Parisa Alizadeh & Hosein Mohammadi & Naser Shahnoushi & Sayed Saghaian & Alireza Pooya, 2020. "Application of System Thinking Approach in Identifying the Challenges of Beef Value Chain," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 12(2), June.
    2. Kelechukwu G. Odoemena & Jeffrey P. Walters & Holger Maximilian Kleemann, 2020. "A System Dynamics Model of Supply-Side Issues Influencing Beef Consumption in Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Belanche, Alejandro & Martín-García, A. Ignacio & Fernández-Álvarez, Javier & Pleguezuelos, Javier & Mantecón, Ángel R. & Yáñez-Ruiz, David R., 2019. "Optimizing management of dairy goat farms through individual animal data interpretation: A case study of smart farming in Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 27-38.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:101:y:2009:i:3:p:186-196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.