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Is the Tunisian Central Bank following a Linear or a Nonlinear Augmented Taylor Rule?

Author

Listed:
  • Beldi Lamia

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Tunis, University of Tunis El-Manar, Tunisia)

  • Mouldi Djelassi

    (DEFI and ESSECT, University of Tunis, Tunisia/Associate Researcher at LEO, University of Orleans, Orl ans, France.)

Abstract

The political transition in the Arab Spring countries has been accompanied by a deterioration of economic and financial indicators like in the Tunisian case. This paper aims to get a deeper understanding of the nature of the rule that reflects the behavior of the Tunisian monetary authority in the current dominance of economic and financial instability. In particular, this paper assesses whether the Tunisian Central Bank is indeed following a linear or a non linear augmented Taylor rule. For our purpose, we use a forward looking version of Taylor rule augmented by including the effect of exchange rate to estimate the linear and the nonlinear models. A smooth transition regression model is used to estimate the nonlinear rule. The results obtained imply that the Tunisian Central Bank follows a nonlinear Taylor rule in the conduct of monetary policy. In addition, our evidence suggests that the reaction of monetary authority in Tunisia to the deviation of forecasts of inflation rate, output gap and exchange rate changes in terms of magnitude and statistical significance across the high and low interest rate regimes. In particular, when the lagged interest rate is above the threshold level of 4.76%, the main objective of the policy makers is to fight the inflation rate and to limit the depreciation of exchange rate rather than to boost the economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Beldi Lamia & Mouldi Djelassi, 2020. "Is the Tunisian Central Bank following a Linear or a Nonlinear Augmented Taylor Rule?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 69-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2020-03-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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