IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-24-00008.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of supply chain pressure on macroeconomy and stock returns – Evidence from US aggregate and sectoral markets

Author

Listed:
  • Huimin Li

    (West Chester University of Pennsylvania)

  • Dazhi Zheng

    (West Chester University of Pennsylvania)

  • Xiaowei Zhu

    (West Chester University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of supply chain pressure on macroeconomic variables and stock returns in the U.S. from January 1998 to February 2022, after controlling for monetary policy uncertainty and oil price shock. It is found that change in supply chain pressure has a positive impact on inflation and aggregate stock return and a negative impact on change in industrial output. With respect to the sectoral returns, evidence shows that change in supply chain pressure usually has a positive impact on Basic materials, Consumer staples, Industrials, and Real estate returns. However, during the Covid-19 pandemic, change in supply chain pressure has a significant and negative impact on industrial output and stock return.

Suggested Citation

  • Huimin Li & Dazhi Zheng & Xiaowei Zhu, 2025. "Impact of supply chain pressure on macroeconomy and stock returns – Evidence from US aggregate and sectoral markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(1), pages 370-383.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I1-P34.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    2. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-1355, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dongxue Wang & Yugang He, 2025. "Navigating Structural Shocks: Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approaches to Forecasting Macroeconomic Stability," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-25, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Fehrle, 2023. "Hedging against inflation: housing versus equity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2583-2626, December.
    2. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Boon, L.N. & Brière, M. & Rigot, S., 2018. "Regulation and pension fund risk-taking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 23-41.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-442 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    7. KILICARSLAN Zerrin & DUMRUL Yasemin, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impacts Of Oil Price Shocks: An Empirical Analysis Based On The Svar Models," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(5), pages 55-72, December.
    8. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    9. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
    10. Adam Zaremba, 2015. "Inflation, Business Cycles, and Commodity Investing in Financialized Markets," Business and Economics Research Journal, Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18.
    11. McCown, James Ross & Shaw, Ron, 2017. "Investment potential and risk hedging characteristics of platinum group metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 328-337.
    12. Daniel Fehrle, 2021. "Hedging Against Inflation: Housing vs. Equity," Discussion Paper Series 342, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    13. Wamiliana Wamiliana & Edwin Russel & Iskandar Ali Alam & Widiarti Widiarti & Tuti Hairani & Mustofa Usman, 2024. "Modeling and Forecasting Closing Prices of some Coal Mining Companies in Indonesia by Using the VAR(3)-BEKK GARCH(1,1) Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 579-591, January.
    14. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2018. "The Conditional Relationship between Oil Price Risk and Return Stock Market: a Comparative Study of Advanced and Emerging Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(4), pages 1321-1347, December.
    15. Ferrari, Davide & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2021. "Forecasting energy commodity prices: A large global dataset sparse approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Hsu, Kai-Wei, 2012. "Reverse globalization: Does high oil price volatility discourage international trade?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1634-1643.
    17. Jong-Min Kim & Hojin Jung, 2018. "Dependence Structure between Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2), pages 259-280, March.
    18. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil real prices with averaging time-varying VAR models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "The Fisher effect: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(5), pages 637-644, May.
    20. Dzulfikri Azis Muthalib & Abd Azis Muthalib & Ahmad Muhlis Nuryadi & Arifuddin Arifuddin & La Ode Muhammad Harafah & Murdjani Kamaluddin & La Ode Sahili & Muh. Irfandy Azis & Rince Tambunan, 2023. "The Effect of Crude Oil Price and Inflation on Algae Export in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 507-511, May.
    21. Ewees, Ahmed A. & Elaziz, Mohamed Abd & Alameer, Zakaria & Ye, Haiwang & Jianhua, Zhang, 2020. "Improving multilayer perceptron neural network using chaotic grasshopper optimization algorithm to forecast iron ore price volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.