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Ökonomische Effekte des EU-Emissionshandelssystems auf Fluggesellschaften und EU-Mitgliedstaaten: ein innovativer Modellierungsansatz

  • Martin Schaefer
  • Janina Scheelhaase
  • Wolfgang Grimme
  • Sven Maertens
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    In February 2009, the EU Directive for the inclusion of international aviation into the EU emission trading with allowances for CO2 (EU-ETS) came into force. From 2012, virtually all flights landing and departing in the EU will be required to hold and surrender allowances. The initial allocation of allowances to individual aircraft operators will be based on a benchmark, which is calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions for the period from 2004 to 2006 by the reported revenue ton kilometres of the year 2010. In this article, an empirical model for the estimation of the effects of the EU-ETS for aviation is presented. With this model, current and future CO2 emissions and revenue ton kilometres of European aviation are estimated. Furthermore, the economic effects of the EU-ETS on air transport in general, on airline business models and on EU Member States are analysed and interpreted. As a result, it is shown that individual airline business models and EU Member States are quite differently affected by the new EU legislation. Im Februar 2009 trat die EU-Richtlinie zur Einbeziehung des internationalen Luftverkehrs in den EU-Emissionshandel mit CO2-Zertifikaten (EU-ETS) in Kraft. Ab dem Jahre 2012 werden für praktisch alle in der EU startenden und landenden Flüge Zertifikate erforderlich sein. Die Erstzuteilung von Emissionszertifikaten an Fluggesellschaften wird auf einem sogenannten Benchmark basieren, der durch die Division der CO2-Emissionen des Zeitraums 2004 bis 2006 durch die Verkehrsleistung des Jahres 2010 berechnet wird. Die vorliegende Untersuchung stellt ein empirisches Simulationsmodell zur Abschätzung der Effekte des EU-Emissionshandels (EU-ETS) für den Luftverkehr vor. Mit Hilfe dieses Modells werden aktuelle und zukunftsbezogene CO2-Emissionen und Verkehrsleistungen des europäischen Luftverkehrs geschätzt. Weiterhin werden die ökonomischen Effekte des EU-Emissionshandels auf den Luftverkehrssektor insgesamt, auf ausgewählte Gruppen von Fluggesellschaften sowie auf die EU-Mitgliedstaaten analysiert und erörtert. Im Ergebnis kann gezeigt werden, dass einzelne Gruppen von Fluggesellschaften und EU-Mitgliedstaaten ganz unterschiedlich von der neuen EU-Gesetzgebung betroffen sein werden.

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    Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

    Volume (Year): 79 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 194-210

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    Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:79-2-12
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