IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dbs/ijabfi/v4y2025i2p78-98id268.html

Global risk transmission in GCC markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chinmaya Narayany S.

  • Asgar Ali

  • Faisal Nazir Zargar

Abstract

This study analyses the transmission of global risk across global markets (MSCI US, Brent crude oil, and MSCI Gold) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region from January 2009 to November 2024. The study uses a dual econometric framework: first, calculating extreme downside risk with a DCC-GARCH model, and then capturing the direction and magnitude of risk spillovers with a TVP-VAR model. The analysis helps determine how the relationships between these indices evolve during periods of global financial crises and uncertainty. Results show that GCC markets are highly vulnerable to external shocks and predominantly net recipients of risk. The US market emerges as the strongest net transmitter of volatility, especially during periods of crisis. Brent crude oil serves as both a transmitter and a receiver of risk, while gold serves as a shock absorber and remains a safe-haven asset. Robustness checks using alternate specifications confirm the reliability of these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Chinmaya Narayany S. & Asgar Ali & Faisal Nazir Zargar, 2025. "Global risk transmission in GCC markets," International Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance, Indian Accounting Association, Patna Branch, vol. 4(2), pages 78-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:dbs:ijabfi:v:4:y:2025:i:2:p:78-98:id:268
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ijabf.in/index.php/IJABF/article/view/268
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
    2. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal, 2021. "Risk spillover from crude oil prices to GCC stock market returns: New evidence during the COVID-19 outbreak," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    4. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    5. Marcello Pericoli & Kamil Yilmaz, 2024. "Shocks and global asset market connectedness," Chapters, in: Guglielmo M. Caporale (ed.), Handbook of Financial Integration, chapter 5, pages 108-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sheng Zhu & Ella Kavanagh & Niall O'Sullivan, 2021. "Constructing a financial conditions index for the United Kingdom: A comparative analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2976-2989, April.
    2. Feng, Huiqun & Zhang, Jun & Guo, Na, 2023. "Time-varying linkages between energy and stock markets: Dynamic spillovers and driving factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Li, Xingyi & Gan, Kai & Zhou, Qi, 2023. "Dynamic volatility connectedness among cryptocurrencies and China's financial assets in standard times and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Chen, Liangyuan & Lin, Jianhao & Wang, Xia & Zhu, Zixiang, 2025. "The real effect of China's narrative Central Bank Communication," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PC).
    5. Anna Gainetdinova & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "The dynamic response of Russian exchange rate to precious metals and minerals prices," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 59-75, March.
    6. Wang, Yiding & Zhao, Xiaojun & Shang, Junyan, 2025. "Dynamic risk spillover in green financial markets: A wavelet frequency analysis from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Hu, Wenbin & Zhou, Junzi, 2025. "Measuring and forecasting financial system resilience under multiple shocks: A survival analysis approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Huang, Zishan & Zhu, Huiming & Hau, Liya & Deng, Xi, 2023. "Time-frequency co-movement and network connectedness between green bond and financial asset markets: Evidence from multiscale TVP-VAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Shah, Waheed Ullah & Younis, Ijaz & Missaoui, Ibtissem & Liu, Xiyu, 2025. "Environmental transitions effect of renewable energy and fintech markets on Europe's real estate stock market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    12. Chi Keung Lau & Alaa M. Soliman & Dongna Zhang, 2024. "Energy Price Inflation, Geopolitical Risk, and Bitcoin Dependence Structure: Evidence from BRICS," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(12), pages 2631-2645, September.
    13. Jia, Yanjing & Dong, Zhiliang, 2024. "Characteristics and influencing factors of risk spillover effects across clean energy stock prices: A comparative analysis during four periods of the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    14. Jun Gao & Sheng Zhu & Niall O’Sullivan & Meadhbh Sherman, 2019. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in UK Stock Returns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    15. Dai, Zhifeng & Peng, Yongxin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market sector time-varying spillover effect: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Sohag, Kazi & Kalina, Irina & Elsayed, Ahmed H., 2023. "Financial stress in Russia: Exploring the impact of oil market shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    17. Wang, Yifan & You, Xiqi & Zhang, Yanhang & Yang, Hanfang, 2024. "Does the risk spillover in global financial markets intensify during major public health emergencies? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Capasso Salvatore & Oreste Napolitano & Ana Laura Vivero, 2023. "The Financial Conditions Index as an additional tool for policymakers in developing countries: the Mexican case," CSEF Working Papers 664, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    19. Muneer M. Alshater & Rim El Khoury & Bashar Almansour, 2024. "Navigating uncertainty: a study of the S&P GCC composite index’s connectedness during times of crises," Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(8), pages 1359-1383, June.
    20. Fang, Guobin & Zhou, Xuehua & Ma, Huimin & Zhao, XiaoFang & Deng, YaoXun & Xie, Luoyan, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and systemic financial risk: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dbs:ijabfi:v:4:y:2025:i:2:p:78-98:id:268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Indian Accounting Association Patna Branch (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijabf.in/index.php/IJABF/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.