IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cvv/journ5/v12y2025i1p11-32.html

The future of economic growth in the World’s largest economies

Author

Listed:
  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Australia)

Abstract

The future of economic growth is projected by solving differential equations describing growth rate date. Analysis was carried out for 12 countries representing the leading economies responsible for around70% of the global economic output. Out of all these countries, the most secure and stable economic growth is in Japan, Germany and France. In contrast, economic growth in China, India and Brazil are strongly insecure and potentially leading to the economic collapse. Economic growth in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia are on the border line. They also might become unsustainable. Economic growth in the remaining two countries, Italy and Russian Federation, is unpredictable. As for the preventive measures, for Japan, Germany and France, growth rate should be, if possible, maintained at a small value below 1%. Economic growth in these countries is described by logistic trajectories. Their asymptotic approach to a maximum value is hard to control but the growth rate should not be allowed to be substantially increased. For China, India and Brazil, growth rate should be now decreasing sufficiently fast to avoid the potential economic collapse. For the USA, UK, Canada and Australia, it would be also advisable to decrease their growth rate faster than in the recent years. For two countries, Italy and Russian Federation, it is essential to stabilise, if possible, their economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2025. "The future of economic growth in the World’s largest economies," Journal of Economics Library, EconSciences Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 11-32, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:cvv:journ5:v:12:y:2025:i:1:p:11-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.econsciences.com/index.php/JEL/article/view/2576/3304
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.econsciences.com/index.php/JEL/article/view/2576
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Artzrouni, Marc & Komlos, John, 1985. "Population Growth Through History and the Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Munich Reprints in Economics 3428, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2025. "The postulate of the three regimes of economic growth contradicted by data," Turkish Economic Review, EconSciences Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 99-125, September.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "Mathematics of Predicting Growth," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 222-238, December.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Interpretations of Hyperbolic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 594-626, December.
    4. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematics of Predicting Growth," Papers 1510.06337, arXiv.org.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Interpretations of Hyperbolic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 594-626, December.
    6. Alexander Rathke & Samad Sarferaz, 2010. "Malthus was right: new evidence from a time-varying VAR," IEW - Working Papers 477, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    7. Andrey Korotayev & Ilya Vaskin & Stanislav Bilyuga & Alina Khokhlova & Anastasia Baltach & Eugeny Ivanov & Kira Meshcherina, 2017. "Economic Development and Sociopolitical Destabilization: A Re-Analysis," HSE Working papers WP BRP 46/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2015. "East africa in the Malthusian trap? A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators," Papers 1503.08441, arXiv.org.
    9. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    10. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Papers 1602.05718, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    11. Peter J. Lloyd, 2021. "Big Economic History," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 10-44, March.
    12. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, March.
    13. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Demographic Catastrophes Did Not Shape the Growth of Human Population or the Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, June.
    14. Alexander Rathke & Samad Sarferaz, 2014. "Malthus and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," CESifo Working Paper Series 4667, CESifo.
    15. Alexander Rathke & Samad Sarferaz, 2014. "Malthus and the Industrial Revolution," KOF Working papers 14-351, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    16. Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2015. "East Africa in the Malthusian Trap?," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 31(3), pages 385-420, September.
    17. Raydonal Ospina & Jaciele Oliveira & Cristiano Ferraz & André Leite & João Gondim, 2023. "Ensemble Algorithms to Improve COVID-19 Growth Curve Estimates," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
    18. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Changing the Direction of the Economic and Demographic Research," Papers 1708.08673, arXiv.org.
    19. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cvv:journ5:v:12:y:2025:i:1:p:11-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bilal KARGI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.econsciences.com/index.php/JEL .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.