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Analysis of factors make Turkish economy fragile by LOGIT and PROBIT models (1990.01-2018:05)

Author

Listed:
  • Recep TARI

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Kocaeli University, Kocaeli, Turkey)

  • Figen BÃœYÃœKAKIN

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Kocaeli University, Kocaeli, Turkey)

  • Seda AYDIN

    (Institute of Social Sciences, Kocaeli University, Kocaeli, Turkey)

Abstract

Theglobalizationmovementsthatstartedtowardstheendofthe20thcenturyinfluencedmanyareasoftheeconomy.Asaresultoftheglobalization,despitethepersistenceofthepoliticalborders,countrieshaveestablishedborderlessrelationshipsintheeconomicarena.Ontheotherhand,alongwithglobalization,financialcriseshavebecomemorefrequentintheworldeconomy.Inparticular,thefactthatthe2008GlobalCrisisreachedseriousdimensionsmadeitnecessarytotakemeasurestostabilizethemarketsandtoevaluatethefactorsthatwouldshakethemarketandmakethemarketfragile.Financialfragilityisaconceptthatisoftenconcurrentlyusedwiththeconceptsoffinancialinstabilityandfinancialcrisis.FinancialfragilityisahypothesiswhichwasdevelopedbyHymanMinskyandisdifferentfrombothconceptsandalsoisinteractivelyaffectedbyinstabilityandcrises.Inthisstudy,unlikeotherstudieswithreferencetoMinsky'sfinancialfragilityhypothesis,weaimedtoidentifythefactorsthatmakefragilethefinancialmarketsinTurkey.Logitandprobitmodelswerestudiedwiththedataof1990:01-2018:05period.Withreferencetothestudyresults,theincreaseinratiosofthevolumeofbankloansandM2occurreservesincreasesthepossibilityoffuturecrises.Besides,itisfoundattheendofthestudythatadecreaseinthecompositeleadingindicatorsindexandinM2intheBIST100indexwillstrengthentheprobabilityofacrisis

Suggested Citation

  • Recep TARI & Figen BÃœYÃœKAKIN & Seda AYDIN, 2018. "Analysis of factors make Turkish economy fragile by LOGIT and PROBIT models (1990.01-2018:05)," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 466-479, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cvv:journ1:v:5:y:2018:i:4:p:466-479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
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    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies

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