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Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946–86

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  • Jacobson, Gary C.

Abstract

Analysis of both district-level and aggregate time-series data from postwar House elections supports the thesis that strategic political elites play a pivotal role in translating national conditions into election results and therefore in holding members of Congress collectively accountable for the government's performance. More high-quality candidates run when prospects appear to favor their party; they also win significantly more votes and victories than other candidates in equivalent circumstances. Thus, strategic career decisions both reflect and enhance national partisan tides. The electoral importance of strategic politicians has grown over time in tandem with the trend toward candidate-centered electoral politics. This has rendered the effects of national forces less automatic, more contingent, thus threatening the capacity of elections to enforce some degree of collective responsibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobson, Gary C., 1989. "Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946–86," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 773-793, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:83:y:1989:i:03:p:773-793_08
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    Cited by:

    1. Thompson, Paul N., 2019. "Are school officials held accountable for fiscal stress? Evidence from school district financial intervention systems," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 44-54.
    2. Thomas Carsey & William Berry, 2014. "What’s a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 251-273, July.
    3. Bose, Paul, 2021. "Political (self-)selection and competition: Evidence from U.S. Congressional elections," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242377, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Omololu Fagbadebo, 2019. "Interrogating the Constitutional Requisites for Legislative Oversight in the Promotion of Accountability and Good Governance in South Africa and Nigeria," Insight on Africa, , vol. 11(1), pages 38-59, January.
    5. Alexander, Dan, 2021. "Uncontested incumbents and incumbent upsets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 163-185.
    6. Kevin Arceneaux & Johanna Dunaway & Martin Johnson & Ryan J. Vander Wielen, 2020. "Strategic Candidate Entry and Congressional Elections in the Era of Fox News," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 398-415, April.
    7. Cherie D. Maestas & Cynthia R. Rugeley, 2008. "Assessing the “Experience Bonus” Through Examining Strategic Entry, Candidate Quality, and Campaign Receipts in U.S. House Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 520-535, July.
    8. Ongena, Steven & Danisewicz, Piotr, 2020. "Fiscal transfers, local government, and entrepreneurship," CEPR Discussion Papers 15384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Jamie L. Carson & Ryan D. Williamson, 2018. "Candidate ideology and electoral success in congressional elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 175-192, July.
    10. Fowler, Anthony & Hall, Andrew B., 2015. "Congressional seniority and pork: A pig fat myth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 42-56.
    11. Marcelin Joanis, 2013. "Sharing the Blame? Local Electoral Accountability and Centralized School Finance in California," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 335-359, November.
    12. Vincenzo Galasso & Tommaso Nannicini, 2017. "Political selection under alternative electoral rules," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 257-281, June.
    13. David R. Jones, 2010. "Partisan Polarization and Congressional Accountability in House Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(2), pages 323-337, April.
    14. Michael J. Ensley & Michael W. Tofias & Scott De Marchi, 2009. "District Complexity as an Advantage in Congressional Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 990-1005, October.
    15. Morelli, Massimo & Gennaro, Gloria & Lecce, Giampaolo, 2021. "Mobilization and the Strategy of Populism Theory and Evidence from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 15686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Shigeo Hirano & James M. Snyder, Jr., 2009. "Using Multimember District Elections to Estimate the Sources of the Incumbency Advantage," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 292-306, April.
    17. Steven Rogers, 2016. "National Forces in State Legislative Elections," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 667(1), pages 207-225, September.
    18. Matthew P. Dube & Jesse T. Clark & Richard J. Powell, 2022. "Graphical metrics for analyzing district maps," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 449-475, May.
    19. Daniel Lee, 2014. "Third-party threat and the dimensionality of major-party roll call voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 515-531, June.

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