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Dynamic Diffusion with Disadoption: The Case of Crop Biotechnology in the USA

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  • Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge
  • Alexander, Corinne
  • Goodhue, Rachael E.

Abstract

Controversy over the use of genetically engineered (GE) crops may have induced some farmers to disadopt these seeds, making a traditional diffusion model inappropriate. In this study, we develop and estimate a dynamic diffusion model, examine the diffusion paths of GE corn, soybeans, and cotton, predict the adoption of those crops over the next two years, and explore the main determinants of the diffusion rate. Our estimates indicate that future growth of Bt crops will be slower or negative, depending mainly on the infestation levels of the target pests. Adoption of herbicide-tolerant soybeans and cotton will continue to increase, unless consumer sentiment in the United States changes radically.
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  • Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Alexander, Corinne & Goodhue, Rachael E., 2002. "Dynamic Diffusion with Disadoption: The Case of Crop Biotechnology in the USA," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 112-126, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:agrerw:v:31:y:2002:i:01:p:112-126_00
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    1. Xu, Pei & Wang, Zhigang, 2012. "Factors Affect Chinese Producers' Adoption of a New Production Technology: Survey Results from Chinese Fruits Producers," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), June.
    2. Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Nehring, Richard & Osteen, Craig & Wechsler, Seth James & Martin, Andrew & Vialou, Alex, 2014. "Pesticide Use in U.S. Agriculture: 21 Selected Crops, 1960-2008," Economic Information Bulletin 178462, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Gyau, Amos & Voss, Julian & Spiller, Achim & Enneking, Ulrich, 2009. "Farmer Acceptance of Genetically Modified seeds in Germany: Results of a Cluster Analysis," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 12(4).
    4. Kimhi, Ayal & Rubin, Ofir D., 2006. "Assessing The Response Of Farm Households To Dairy Policy Reform In Israel," Discussion Papers 7134, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
    5. Ursula Aldana & Jeremy D. Foltz & Bradford L. Barham & Pilar Useche, 2010. "Sequential Adoption of Package Technologies: The Dynamics of Stacked Trait Corn Adoption," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 130-143.
    6. Useche, Pilar & Barham, Bradford & Foltz, Jeremy, 2006. "A Trait Specific Model of GM Crop Adoption by Minnesota and Wisconsin Corn Farmers," Working Papers 201525, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Food System Research Group.
    7. Gardner, Justin G. & Nelson, Carl H., 2007. "Genetically Modified Crops and Labor Savings in US Crop Production," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34919, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Gedikoglu, Haluk & McCann, Laura M.J., 2009. "Disadoption of Agricultural Practices by Livestock Farmers," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49404, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Aldana, Ursula & Foltz, Jeremy D. & Barham, Bradford L. & Useche, Pilar, 2010. "The Sequential Adoption of Package Technologies: The Dynamics of Stacked Trait Corn Adoption," Staff Paper Series 556, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    10. Xingliang Ma & Guanming Shi, 2015. "A dynamic adoption model with Bayesian learning: an application to U.S. soybean farmers," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 25-38, January.
    11. Yoo, Do-il, 2012. "Individual and Social Learning in Bio-technology Adoption: The Case of GM Corn in the U.S," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124975, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Swinton, Scott M., 2004. "Assessing Economic Impacts Of Natural Resource Management Using Economic Surplus," Staff Papers 11668, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.

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