The economic consequences of military conflicts: The Ukrainian context

Conflict, as a unique form of interaction involving the clash of interests between participants in social relations, serves as a necessary condition for the development of civilisation. Contradictions have accompanied humanity throughout its history, finding reflection in the literature, art, and history of various countries and peoples. The emergence and progression of any conflict have economic consequences, stemming from the objective confrontation between opposing forces. The modern economic landscape is increasingly characterised by deepening disparities and a shrinking gap between crises and conflicts. The purpose of this article is to identify the periods that have impacted Ukraine’s economy and to analyse the economic consequences of these periods. The author posits that the military period has had a detrimental effect on Ukraine’s economy. To achieve this goal, the research employs methods such as scientific abstraction, generalisation, synthesis, analysis, comparison, as well as graphical and tabular methods for data interpretation. This approach has allowed the identification of three main periods of conflict in Ukraine: the brewing conflict in Eastern Ukraine (2013-2014), the pandemic period (beginning in 2019), and the military period (starting in 2022). For each of these stages, the economic development processes in Ukraine were analysed. It is noted that conflicts are inherently dangerous, posing threats not only to the sovereign governance of territories but also to the economy of Ukraine and the global economy at large. Based on the analysis of Ukraine’s economic development scenarios without the state of war, the main factors that would contribute to economic recovery in the following areas were highlighted: GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and the NBU’s key interest rate. The practical value of this work lies in the identification of three periods of military conflicts in Ukraine and the analysis of their key consequences. This approach helped to demonstrate that the war in Ukraine not only weakens the Ukrainian economy but also affects the economies of neighboring countries. The main economic losses for Ukraine during these conflicts include the loss of human resources and the resulting regional development disparities